国信证券指出，公司是全球铝产业头部企业，拥有1900万吨氧化铝产能和646万吨电解铝产能，是全球 第二大铝生产商。公司坚持高比例分红，于2025年5月公告未来三年(2025-2027年)股东回报规划：公司 发展阶段属成熟期且无重大资金支出安排的，进行利润分配时，现金分红在本次利润分配中所占比例最 低应达到80%。公司分红比例在铝行业是最高水平。 中国宏桥(01378)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.32%，报36.74港元，成交额2.08亿港元。 消息面上，招银国际认为，鉴于全球铝供应短缺格局将在2026至2027年持续，叠加铝价上行与铝土矿价 格下行的双重利好，上调中国宏桥盈利预测，并将其目标价从39港元升至45港元，维持"买入"评级。招 银国际指出，当前中国原铝产能利用率已接近政策上限的99%，同时海外新增产能释放有限，这将支撑 全球铝市维持短缺状态，预计2026年铝均价同比上涨15%。此外，从盈利表现来看，中国宏桥2025年核 心净利润预计达262.62亿元，同比增长7%；2026年净利润增速将加快至34%，主要驱动力来自铝价上 涨。 ...

Market Overview - The market performance is generally poor before major holidays due to concerns about potential issues during the break, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.72% [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, causing the probability of a Fed rate cut in March to plummet from 20% to 8%, which could negatively impact the stock market if the upcoming CPI data is also unfavorable [1] - The Nasdaq experienced a significant drop of over 2% due to AI-related fears, leading to a chain reaction where investors sold gold to cover margin calls, despite no fundamental deterioration in gold [1] AI and Technology Sector - The subscription service GLM Coding Plan by Zhihui (02513) announced a price increase due to strong market demand, with user growth and usage volume rapidly increasing [2] - Zhihui's GLM-5 model ranks first in three major agent evaluation benchmarks, and its coding capabilities are approaching those of Claude Opus 4.5, indicating a strong competitive position [2] - MiniMax+ (00100) also saw a rise of over 15%, both companies reaching historical highs, with expectations of foreign capital focusing on driving up stock prices after the Spring Festival [2] Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which will replace the previous recommended standards [3] - The new standards will introduce safety guarantees and certification systems, establishing product access conditions and detailing technical indicators and simulation testing requirements [3] - Companies in the intelligent driving sector, such as Nari Technology (01316) and Zhejiang Shibao (01057), experienced stock price increases following the announcement [3] Robotics Sector - MicroPort Robotics-B (02252) reported that its core product, the Tumi laparoscopic surgical robot, has surpassed 200 global commercial orders, with successful surgeries conducted in nearly 10 countries [4] - The company has achieved a 100% success rate in nearly 800 remote surgeries, leading to a stock price increase of over 11% [4] - Other companies in the robotics field, such as Yujia Technology (02515) and UBTECH (09880), also saw stock price increases following MicroPort's announcement [4] Metals Sector - Reports indicate that Trump is considering reducing tariffs on aluminum products, which could provide opportunities for the aluminum sector during the adjustment period [5] - The aluminum sector experienced a notable drop, but the current aluminum premium in the U.S. indicates that tariff costs are primarily borne by American consumers rather than foreign producers [6] - Potential tariff reductions could positively impact U.S. aluminum demand, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish outlook for the aluminum sector [6] Consumer Sector - China Duty Free Group (01880) reported strong sales data following the opening of Hainan's duty-free market, with sales reaching 1.106 billion yuan during the Spring Festival [7] - The company is set to implement zero-tariff policies for daily consumer goods and has planned multiple promotional activities to boost sales [7] - A significant acquisition of DFS in the Greater China region and strategic investment from LVMH is expected to enhance the company's market position and resource access [7]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 1.72% [1] - The Tech Index fell by 0.9% [1] Company-Specific Movements - Tencent Music (01698.HK) experienced a decline of over 9% [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) dropped by more than 7% [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both fell by over 5% [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.792 billion, 0.571 billion, and 0.412 billion respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow of southbound funds were Yingfu Fund (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Kuaishou-W (01024), with net outflows of -4.553 billion, -1.380 billion, and -0.576 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088), Southern East Selection (03441), and Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) led the market with ratios of 90.53%, 74.02%, and 68.27% respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow ratio were Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432), Fuyao Glass (06865), and Baize Medical (02609) with ratios of -100.00%, -59.27%, and -53.09% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.792 billion, representing a 12.21% increase, closing at 560.000 (+2.28%) [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) saw a net inflow of 0.571 billion, with a 6.77% increase, closing at 5.300 (+1.34%) [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 0.412 billion, with a 9.45% increase, closing at 35.200 (+0.06%) [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the highest net outflow of -4.553 billion, with a -22.13% decrease, closing at 27.220 (+1.72%) [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of -1.380 billion, representing an -11.37% decrease, closing at 93.940 (+1.56%) [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) faced a net outflow of -0.576 billion, with a -10.25% decrease, closing at 69.300 (-2.74%) [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088) led with a net inflow ratio of 90.53%, with a net inflow of 47.6883 million, closing at 6.875 (+1.33%) [3] - Southern East Selection (03441) followed with a net inflow ratio of 74.02%, with a net inflow of 18.0421 million, closing at 11.600 (+1.13%) [3] - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) had a net inflow ratio of 68.27%, with a net inflow of 5.6553 million, closing at 13.340 (-0.07%) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,071.73, down 194.65 points or 0.71% from the previous close, indicating a decline in market performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The HSI reached a high of 27,213.46 and a low of 26,949.38 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 40 million shares [1]. - The average price for the HSI was 27,081.42, while the 52-week high and low were 27,964.68 and 19,335.70, respectively [1]. Group 2: Major Blue-Chip Stocks - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.794, unchanged from the Hong Kong close, while Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 543.262, down 0.86% [2]. - Among the major stocks, Alibaba (HKD 160.100, down 0.25%), and Xiaomi (HKD 37.100, up 4.27%) showed varied performance [3]. - Notable gainers included BYD Company, which rose by 3.50% to HKD 99.150, while Pop Mart International fell by 5.49% to HKD 255.000 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) has experienced significant net redemptions recently, indicating potential investor concerns or shifts in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of February 10, the latest scale of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) is 8.78 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 27.79 million yuan on that day, representing 0.32% of the previous day's scale [1]. - Over the past five days, the fund has seen net redemptions totaling 70.53 million yuan, ranking 11th out of 215 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1]. - Year-to-date, the fund's shares have decreased by 4.58%, while its scale has increased by 4.09% compared to the end of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The cumulative trading amount for the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) over the last 20 trading days is 7.123 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 356 million yuan [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the fund has recorded a cumulative trading amount of 9.096 billion yuan over 27 trading days, averaging 337 million yuan per day [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings - The top holdings of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (14.55%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.65%), and China Pacific Insurance (8.90%), among others [3]. - The fund's significant holdings reflect a diversified investment strategy focused on high-dividend stocks within the Hong Kong market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global aluminum supply shortage is expected to persist until 2026-2027, leading to an upward adjustment in the profit forecast for China Hongqiao (01378) and an increase in the target price from HKD 39 to HKD 45, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current utilization rate of China's primary aluminum production capacity is nearing the policy limit of 99%, while new overseas production capacity is limited, supporting a sustained global aluminum market shortage [1] - The average aluminum price is projected to increase by 15% year-on-year in 2026, with price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 being raised by 12% and 7%, respectively [1] - Despite an anticipated acceleration in overseas production capacity in 2027, the aluminum shortage is expected to continue, keeping prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Hongqiao's core net profit for 2025 is expected to reach CNY 26.262 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a projected profit growth rate of 34% in 2026 driven primarily by rising aluminum prices [1] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in aluminum prices will enhance the company's net profit by 2.3% in 2026, while a 1% decrease in coal prices will boost net profit by 0.3% [1] Group 3: Valuation - Based on a forward P/E ratio of 11 times for 2026, the target price for China Hongqiao has been raised to HKD 45, with future stock price increases expected to rely more on profit growth rather than valuation expansion [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 35.30 and a target value of HKD 44.25 [6]. Core Views - The increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity. With improved demand for electrolytic aluminum and constrained supply, the upward potential for aluminum prices should not be overlooked. The average price of Shanghai aluminum futures for 2025 is projected to be RMB 20,750 per ton, a 4% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expected cash dividend ratios of 49%, 48%, and 64% for the years 2022-2024. Assuming a price of RMB 23,000 for aluminum in 2026, the company's net profit could reach RMB 32.74 billion, leading to a dividend yield of 6.7% [8]. - The forecasted EPS for the company for 2025-2027 is expected to be RMB 2.20, RMB 3.28, and RMB 3.29 per share, respectively. Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 is applied, resulting in a reasonable value of HKD 44.25 per share [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company's main revenue is projected to be RMB 133.62 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 156.17 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decline to RMB 151.18 billion in 2025, and then recovering to RMB 159.87 billion in 2026 and 2027 [4][31]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from RMB 26.91 billion in 2023 to RMB 45.64 billion in 2024, before decreasing to RMB 40.85 billion in 2025, and then increasing to RMB 54.92 billion in 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 11.46 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.37 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decrease to RMB 21.88 billion in 2025, and then a substantial increase to RMB 32.74 billion in 2026 and RMB 32.84 billion in 2027 [4][31]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow due to the booming global renewable energy sector and the Belt and Road Initiative, which will support long-term demand growth. The automotive sector is increasingly adopting aluminum for lightweighting, while the photovoltaic sector will continue to drive aluminum demand [9][10]. - On the supply side, the growth of electrolytic aluminum production is limited due to energy constraints and existing capacity ceilings in China. The expected growth rate for electrolytic aluminum supply from 2025 to 2027 is around 1% [10][11]. - Overall, the combination of sustained demand growth and limited supply increases the potential for upward price elasticity in aluminum, which is expected to open up profit growth opportunities for electrolytic aluminum companies [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and characteristics of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691), which has shown a slight increase in scale despite a decrease in shares this year [1][2]. - As of February 9, 2023, the fund's latest share count is 6.251 billion, with a total scale of 8.709 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.27% decrease in shares and a 3.24% increase in scale since the end of 2022 [1]. - The fund has a management fee rate of 0.45% per year and a custody fee rate of 0.07% per year, with its performance benchmark being the adjusted return of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Select Index [1]. Group 2 - The current fund managers are Liu Weilin, He Shun, Zhao Xu, and Jiao Wenlong, with Liu Weilin managing the fund since its inception and achieving a return of 40.69% [2]. - The top holdings of the fund include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (14.55%), China Shenhua Energy (9.65%), and China Pacific Insurance (8.90%), among others, with significant market values for each [3]. - The fund's recent trading activity shows a cumulative transaction amount of 9.096 billion yuan over 27 trading days this year, with an average daily transaction amount of 3.37 million yuan [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378.HK) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 18.675 billion, 25.299 billion, and 27.176 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [1] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 times for the year 2026, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in the electrolytic aluminum industry [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao is set at 45.58 HKD, based on an exchange rate of 0.89 HKD to RMB [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization of China Hongqiao is 344.265 billion HKD, making it the top company in the industrial metals sector [1] - Over the past 90 days, three investment banks have issued buy ratings for the stock, with an average target price of 40.02 HKD [1] - The latest report from Global Fortune Management also gives a buy rating for China Hongqiao, with a target price of 45.58 HKD [1]