Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the dual drive of technology and domestic demand in China's economic development, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][34] - Historical policies from the National People's Congress (NPC) have evolved from focusing on expanding domestic demand and reform to promoting innovation and common prosperity, aligning with the current global economic environment [1][18] - The report outlines that the stock market typically experiences an upward trend before the NPC, fluctuates during the meetings, and rebounds afterward, indicating a strong correlation between policy announcements and market performance [2][24] Group 2 - Expectations for the upcoming NPC include a more proactive and focused policy structure, with an emphasis on stabilizing growth and adjusting the economic structure, where technology and domestic demand are seen as the biggest winners [2][34] - The report identifies key investment themes for 2026, including technology (especially AI), consumption, green energy, and cyclical sectors, suggesting that these areas will benefit from policy support and economic recovery [3][34] - The anticipated legislative review of the "Ecological Environment Code" is highlighted as a significant milestone for integrating green development into legal practice, indicating a strong focus on sustainable investment opportunities [3][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for precious metals due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the military actions between the US and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran's military conflict may impact its production capabilities, particularly in metals where it holds a high global market share, such as strontium (56% of global production) and DRI (24% of global production) [4][5]. - Copper and zinc are identified as critical metals with significant implications for global supply chains, especially in light of potential disruptions in the Middle East [6]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions will enhance the appeal of gold and silver as inflation hedges, with gold prices expected to rise in response to increased demand [3]. - The report also discusses the potential for silver prices to be more volatile due to its dual role as an industrial and financial asset [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report indicates that the ongoing conflict may tighten the global aluminum supply, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could lead to price increases [11][12]. - It highlights that the aluminum market is currently in a state of tight balance, with potential for price support due to supply constraints [11]. New Energy Metals - The report discusses Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting their pricing and availability [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][56]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, leading to an increase in gold prices. As of February 27, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $5,296.4 per ounce, a 3.24% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 2.1% increase to 1,101 tons. The joint military actions by the US and Israel against Iran have heightened market risk aversion, which is expected to drive gold prices higher in the short term. Long-term, unresolved US debt issues and weakening dollar credit are anticipated to support a continued upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: Industrial metals are expected to open up upward price potential. Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 yuan per ton as of February 27. Domestic copper social inventory reached 531,700 tons, while LME copper inventory was at 253,700 tons. The global copper resource bottleneck is expected to persist, with AI opening up future demand growth. Short-term macro sentiment is likely to dominate, but copper prices are expected to remain strong [5][6]. - Aluminum: As of February 27, SHFE aluminum futures rose by 2.8% to 23,835 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 1,157,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 265,000 tons. The closure of 580,000 tons of capacity at the Mozal aluminum plant and high electricity prices in Europe are expected to tighten global aluminum supply. With improving macro sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to trend upward in the medium to long term [6]. - Tin: As of February 27, SHFE tin futures surged by 24% to 453,000 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory stood at 13,109 tons, while LME tin inventory was at 7,550 tons. The development of AI technology is expected to increase demand for tin, which is seen as a "computing metal," leading to further demand elasticity [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a current price of $5,296.4 per ounce and a 3.24% month-on-month increase. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.1% to 1,101 tons [4]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 yuan per ton, with domestic social inventory at 531,700 tons and LME inventory at 253,700 tons. The global copper resource bottleneck is expected to continue [6]. - Aluminum: Prices rose by 2.8% to 23,835 yuan per ton, with domestic social inventory at 1,157,000 tons. The closure of capacity and high electricity prices are expected to tighten supply [6]. - Tin: Prices surged by 24% to 453,000 yuan per ton, with domestic social inventory at 13,109 tons. Increased demand from AI technology is anticipated [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum. For aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 其他小金属：节后钨市偏强节奏运行，现货流通依旧紧张。节后钨产 业链快速回归偏强节奏，矿山复工偏慢，现货流通依旧紧张，持货商报价 坚挺。下游企业陆续复产，刚需补库带动交投回暖，但高价下多以小单谨 慎跟进。光伏钨丝、高端制造等领域需求稳定，成本与低库存形成双重支 撑，全链心态向好，短期行情易涨难跌，后续走势关注节后复工及供需释 放情况。个股：锑建议关注湖南黄金、华锡有色、华钰矿业；钼关注金钼 股份、中金黄金、洛阳钼业；钨关注佳鑫国际资源、中钨高新、厦门钨业、 章源钨业，翔鹭钨业；稀土关注中国稀土、中稀有色、北方稀土、金力永 磁、厦门钨业。 一周市场回顾：本周涨幅前十：菲利华（40.02%）、云南锗业（37.77%）、 章源钨业（32.81%）、沃尔德（32.71%）、锌业股份（26.96%）、华锡 有色（26.73%）、中钨高新（26.35%）、永兴材料（25.51%）、驰宏锌 锗（24.35%）、抚顺特钢（24.25%）。 风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 03 月 ...

编辑|Z.Y 离岸、在岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破6.84关口，创下新高。短短一段时间，人民币从7.4的低位一路飙 升至6.84，这样的升值速度堪称"核爆"级。 随之而来的，是全网最关心的两个问题：国内通胀会不会跟着抬头？各类资产价格真的要全面起飞吗？ 升势猛 人民币这次的升值势头，远比大家想象的更强劲，而且不是短期波动，而是持续走强的趋势。回顾近期 走势，2月20日以来，人民币迎来五连涨，离岸人民币兑美元累计上涨600多个基点，涨幅接近1%。 如果把时间拉长到2026年开年，升值幅度更为明显。 截至2月26日，离岸人民币兑美元累计升值近1400个基点，幅度达到2%，从年初的高位逐步回落，一路 突破6.9、6.85等关键关口，最终站稳6.84上方。 2月26当天，人民币对美元中间价报6.9228，较前一天上调93个基点，同样创下2023年5月中旬以来的新 高。 美元承压下跌，也间接推动了人民币升值。近期，美国司法部对美联储主席发起刑事调查，美联储的独 立性受到冲击，市场对美元的信任度下降，导致美元指数走弱，非美货币集体走高，人民币也顺势迎来 升值。 更值得关注的是，2月26日盘中，离岸人民币兑美元一度跌破6.8 ...

■ 本期金股 | 代码 | 筒 称 | 行业 | 收盘价(元) | 流通市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2026/2/26 | 亿元 | | 000807. SZ | 云铝股份 | 工业金属 | 30. 99 | 1074. 71 | | 002493. SZ | 荣盛石化 | 炼化及贸易 | 15. 27 | 1429. 61 | | 603308. SH | 应流股份 | 通用设备 | 73. 06 | 496. 10 | | 601211. SH | 国泰海通 | 证券 | 18. 97 | 2560. 36 | | 600642. SH | 申能股份 | 电力 | 8. 43 | 412. 55 | | 600765. SH | 中航重机 | 航空装备 | 21. 62 | 338. 23 | | 600398. SH | 海澜之家 | 服装家纺 | 6. 23 | 299. 21 | | 1055. HK | 中国南方航空股份 | 航空机场 | 6. 19 | 287. 46 | | 1801. HK | 信达生物 | 生物制品 | 84. ...

景气方面，2月份景气较高的领域主要集中在部分资源品、公用事业和信息技术领域，其中资源品板块多数工业金属、化工品价格上涨；中游制造领域光伏 价格指数上行，汽车产销放缓；消费服务板块生猪养殖盈利改善，四大家电零售额同比降幅收窄；金融地产中商品房销售持续低迷，公用事业领域燃气价格 上涨。部分涨价资源品（工业金属、金属新材料、能源金属、贵金属、化学制品等），AI 景气催化的TMT 板块（半导体、通信设备、计算机设备、软件开 发等），出口优势凸显的中高端制造业（电网设备、自动化设备、通用设备、汽车零部件等）等以及非银等行业。 主力净流入行业板块前五：有色金属，国产软件，光伏，稀土磁材，锂电池； 主力净流入概念板块前五：人工智能，国企改革，大数据，数字经济，一带 一路； 主力净流入个股前十：包钢股份、云南锗业、厦门钨业、永泰能源、寒武纪、海光信息、京东方Ａ、中钨高新、北方稀土、昆仑万维 近日，清华大学科研团队合作提出全柔性人工智能芯片FLEXI——面向边缘智能加速的柔性数字存内计算芯片，填补了柔性电子技术领域的空白，为人工智 能应用提供了专用、可扩展且低功耗的硬件支撑。随着技术突破、政策支持，柔性芯片正在走向产业化应用， ...