KUAISHOU(01024) 交银国际·2025-03-26 11:09Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [4][27]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter performance met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 35.4 billion and RMB 4.7 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 8% [2][8]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for Kuaishou's AI capabilities, with a focus on increasing investment in inference computing power and R&D talent, which may impact profit margins by 1-2 percentage points [8]. - Revenue growth projections for 2025 are maintained at 12%, driven by e-commerce GMV growth of 13% and online marketing revenue growth of 14% [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 113.47 billion in 2023 to RMB 164.07 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [3][28]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.59 billion in 2027, with adjusted net profit margins remaining stable around 14% [3][28]. - The report notes a decrease in the forecasted EPS for 2025 by 8% to RMB 4.60, reflecting adjustments in profit expectations [8]. Business Segments - E-commerce GMV grew by 14% year-on-year, with a significant increase in the number of active merchants [8]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 13%, primarily driven by external advertising, while live streaming revenue saw a slight decline of 2% [8]. - The local life services segment showed strong growth, with monthly payment users and GMV increasing by 52% and 100% respectively [8]. Valuation and Market Performance - The report maintains a valuation premium for Kuaishou based on its leading AI video generation capabilities, applying a 13x P/E ratio for the 2025 estimates [8]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 37.36%, with a 52-week high of HKD 66.35 and a low of HKD 38.15 [6][27].