KUAISHOU(01024) 交银国际·2025-03-26 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [4][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 35.4 billion and RMB 4.7 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 8% [2][8]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for the company's AI product, "可灵", which has generated RMB 100 million in revenue as of February [8]. - Revenue growth is projected to continue, with expectations of a 12% increase in 2025, driven by e-commerce GMV growth of 13% and online marketing revenue growth of 14% [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 126.90 billion in 2024, RMB 141.64 billion in 2025, RMB 152.94 billion in 2026, and RMB 164.07 billion in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 11.8%, 11.6%, 8.0%, and 7.3% [3][28]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.59 billion in 2027, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 20.16 billion in 2025 [3][28]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 2.31 in 2023 to RMB 6.55 in 2027, with a significant jump to RMB 4.60 in 2025 [3][28]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 37.36% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 202.49 billion [6][8]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 66.35 and HKD 38.15 respectively, indicating a strong recovery from its lows [6]. Business Segments - E-commerce GMV grew by 14% year-on-year, with the number of active merchants increasing by over 25% [8]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 13%, primarily driven by external advertising, while live streaming revenue saw a slight decline of 2% [8]. - The local life services segment reported a significant increase, with monthly payment users and GMV growing by 52% and 100% respectively [8].