山西汾酒（600809）：跟踪报告：基底持续夯实，经营进退有余

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has a solid operational foundation, allowing for flexible management strategies. The revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to show a strong start, with a projected double-digit growth for 2024. The company is focusing on maintaining stable inventory and pricing while enhancing product structure assessments [6][7]. - The company aims to strengthen its market presence in both domestic and provincial markets, with a particular focus on expanding its distribution network in East and South China [6][7]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of the "Fen Enjoy" program in managing market dynamics and pricing strategies, which is expected to further enhance sales performance [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,928 million CNY in 2023 to 46,569 million CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 17.3%, 12.9%, and 10.1% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 10,438 million CNY in 2023 to 15,799 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 28.9%, 19.7%, 13.9%, and 11.0% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 8.56 CNY in 2023 to 12.95 CNY in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25 to 16 over the same period [2][10]. Market Positioning - The company has established a leading market share in its home province, with plans to enhance product structure while ensuring a stable growth trajectory. The focus will be on key products like Qing 20 and Lao Bai Fen, which are expected to see significant growth [6][7]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on any recovery in external demand, which could lead to a rapid rebound in performance metrics [6][7].