Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The beverage industry is experiencing steady growth, with the ready-to-drink beverage segment showing significant potential for expansion, particularly in the ready-to-drink tea market, which is expected to reach a scale of 312.7 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [1][16]. - The company, as a leading player in the ready-to-drink tea sector, has a strong market position due to its high cost-performance ratio and extensive store coverage, with over 45,000 stores nationwide [2][3]. - The company is also expanding into the ready-to-drink coffee market, with its brand "Luckin Coffee" expected to capture a larger share in lower-tier markets [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with ready-to-drink tea accounting for 50% of the segment, and the overall beverage market expected to reach 1.6 trillion yuan by 2024 [16][17]. - The market is transitioning from a fragmented structure to a more concentrated one, with the company being the absolute leader in the affordable ready-to-drink tea segment [22][23]. Company Positioning - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the founders holding over 80% of the shares, ensuring strong control and management continuity [2][33]. - The company has been in a rapid expansion phase since 2020, with a significant increase in store numbers, particularly in lower-tier cities, where it has achieved a coverage rate of 56.31% in third to fifth-tier cities [2][47]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 186.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%, with a net profit of 34.9 billion yuan, up 45% year-on-year [2][50]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 242.38 billion yuan, 285.87 billion yuan, and 324.60 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 40.34 billion yuan, 50.59 billion yuan, and 58.88 billion yuan [4][5]. Growth Potential - The company anticipates that the number of domestic stores could exceed 50,000 in the medium term, with potential maximum store numbers reaching between 60,000 to 80,000 [3][4]. - The ready-to-drink coffee segment is also seen as a significant growth opportunity, with "Luckin Coffee" positioned to benefit from the expanding coffee consumption market [3][28]. Valuation - The report suggests a target price of 431.42 HKD for the stock, based on a valuation of 30 times earnings for 2025, indicating a favorable investment outlook [4][6].
蜜雪集团（02097）：现制茶饮收入冠军，品牌出海值得期待