目錄 Contents 02 公司資料 CORPORATE INFORMATION 05 財務摘要 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 06 業務回顧及展望 BUSINESS REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 16 管理層討論與分析 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 21 董事、監事及高級管理層 DIRECTORS, SUPERVISORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT 30 董事會報告 DIRECTORS' REPORT 59 監事會報告 REPORT OF THE SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE 61 企業管治報告 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE REPORT 90 獨立核數師報告 INDEPENDENT AUDITOR'S REPORT 99 綜合損益表 CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS 100 綜合全面收益表 CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME 101 綜合財務狀況表 CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT O ...

[Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 从 IP 角度看蜜雪冰城情感壁垒 证券研究报告|港股公司动态研究报告 [Table_Title2] 蜜雪集团(2097.HK) [Table_Summary] 3 月 14 日，湖北经视"3·15 特别报道"曝光了一家宜昌的蜜 雪冰城门店使用隔夜柠檬和橙子切片制作饮品。与其他被 315 点名的品牌舆论走向不同，许多网友下场为蜜雪冰城辩护，自 发为其"公关"。为何同样被发现犯错，蜜雪冰城却能够得到消 费者如此宽容？我们认为这主要得益于：1）高效供应链带来的 极致性价比，柠檬水低至 4 元/杯，消费者对平价现制饮品的要 求更多为"解渴"（功能满足），对其他要求相对较低；2）情感 粘性，雪王 IP 积累的好感度以及代表的情怀和记忆为负面冲击 提供缓冲。本文将尝试分析蜜雪冰城是如果将"雪王"打造成 IP 界"顶流"，并实现品牌形象从"低价认知"到"情感认 同"的跃迁。 ► "雪王"IP 化打造，强化情感连接，提升营销效率 类似于泡泡玛特的 Molly 等形象 IP，雪王背后并没有预设的故 事线。自 2018 年雪王诞生以来，公司通 ...

证券研究报告 蜜雪集团 (2097 HK) 1 美元传奇：供应链革新成就全球现饮龙头 | 华泰研究 | | | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 首次覆盖蜜雪集团并给予买入评级，目标价 565.67 港币，对应 26 年 31XPE。 蜜雪是中国及全球门店规模最大的现制饮品龙头，聚焦为全球消费者提供 1 美元左右的高质平价饮品，其拥有现制茶饮蜜雪冰城、现磨咖啡幸运咖两大 品牌，24 年总门店数 4.65 万家。我们认为公司以极致效率的端到端供应链 优势为核心，构建了万店基础设施网络以满足大众对平价高质饮品的核心诉 求，竞争壁垒高。展望未来，蜜雪持续发力下沉拓店，幸运咖差异化入局平 价咖啡赛道潜力足，雪王 IP 加速全球化扩张，门店规模和单店收入皆有向 上空间，我们持续看好规模经济-性价比优势正反馈飞轮带来的业绩弹性。 雪王何以为"王"？性价比为矛，供应链为基，打造高质量规模增长飞轮 公司以"供应链规模经济"为核心的商业模式，颠覆传统以分享加盟商利益， 赚取更高管理费的连锁策略，竞争壁垒高筑：1）产品极致性价比： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company with a target price of 435 HKD, compared to the last closing price of 410.40 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company, Mixue Group, reported a total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, and a net profit of 4.437 billion CNY, which is a 41.4% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - The company has over 46,479 stores, with a significant expansion in lower-tier cities, indicating strong store opening momentum [2][3]. - The gross margin improved to 32.46% in 2024, up by 2.9 percentage points, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency and reduced raw material costs [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 22% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 4.437 billion CNY, showing a growth rate of 41% [5]. - The average revenue per store was 591,000 CNY, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year [1][2]. Store Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had 46,479 stores, with a net increase of 8,350 stores year-on-year [2]. - The company opened 10,555 new franchise stores in 2024, with a closure rate of 3.8% [2]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for 2024 was 32.46%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The net profit margin rose significantly to 19.94%, up by 2.2 percentage points [3]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 20% for 2025, 18% for 2026, and 16% for 2027 [3][5]. - Net profit growth is expected to be 15% in 2025, 19% in 2026, and 17% in 2027 [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 435 HKD, compared to the last closing price of 410.40 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company, Mixue Group, reported a total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, and a net profit of 4.437 billion CNY, up 41.4% year-on-year [1][3]. - The number of stores exceeded 46,479, with a rapid expansion in third-tier and lower cities, indicating strong store opening momentum [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved to 32.46%, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency and reduced raw material costs, contributing to a significant increase in net profit margin to 19.94% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 22% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 4.437 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 41% [5]. - The average revenue per store was 591,000 CNY, showing a slight decline of 3.2% year-on-year [1][2]. Store Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had 46,479 stores, with a net increase of 8,350 stores year-on-year [2]. - The distribution of stores across different city tiers is as follows: first-tier (1,983), new first-tier (8,143), second-tier (7,600), and third-tier and below (23,858) [2]. - The franchise model remains robust, with 46,462 franchise stores and a closure rate of 3.8% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 32.46%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin increased significantly to 19.94%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 20%, 18%, and 16% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 19%, and 17% [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The beverage industry is experiencing steady growth, with the ready-to-drink beverage segment showing significant potential for expansion, particularly in the ready-to-drink tea market, which is expected to reach a scale of 312.7 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [1][16]. - The company, as a leading player in the ready-to-drink tea sector, has a strong market position due to its high cost-performance ratio and extensive store coverage, with over 45,000 stores nationwide [2][3]. - The company is also expanding into the ready-to-drink coffee market, with its brand "Luckin Coffee" expected to capture a larger share in lower-tier markets [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with ready-to-drink tea accounting for 50% of the segment, and the overall beverage market expected to reach 1.6 trillion yuan by 2024 [16][17]. - The market is transitioning from a fragmented structure to a more concentrated one, with the company being the absolute leader in the affordable ready-to-drink tea segment [22][23]. Company Positioning - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the founders holding over 80% of the shares, ensuring strong control and management continuity [2][33]. - The company has been in a rapid expansion phase since 2020, with a significant increase in store numbers, particularly in lower-tier cities, where it has achieved a coverage rate of 56.31% in third to fifth-tier cities [2][47]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 186.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%, with a net profit of 34.9 billion yuan, up 45% year-on-year [2][50]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 242.38 billion yuan, 285.87 billion yuan, and 324.60 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 40.34 billion yuan, 50.59 billion yuan, and 58.88 billion yuan [4][5]. Growth Potential - The company anticipates that the number of domestic stores could exceed 50,000 in the medium term, with potential maximum store numbers reaching between 60,000 to 80,000 [3][4]. - The ready-to-drink coffee segment is also seen as a significant growth opportunity, with "Luckin Coffee" positioned to benefit from the expanding coffee consumption market [3][28]. Valuation - The report suggests a target price of 431.42 HKD for the stock, based on a valuation of 30 times earnings for 2025, indicating a favorable investment outlook [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profit margins and continues to expand its store presence in lower-tier markets [7] - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 24.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, and a net profit of 4.44 billion RMB, up 41.4% year-on-year [7] - The company has established a robust end-to-end supply chain system and is focusing on brand marketing to strengthen its market position [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 20.30 billion RMB, 2024A: 24.83 billion RMB, 2025E: 28.28 billion RMB, 2026E: 31.99 billion RMB, 2027E: 35.90 billion RMB [1] - Net profit projections are: 2023A: 3.14 billion RMB, 2024A: 4.44 billion RMB, 2025E: 5.37 billion RMB, 2026E: 6.09 billion RMB, 2027E: 6.88 billion RMB [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 8.26 RMB in 2023A to 18.12 RMB in 2027E [1] Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of the end of 2024, the company had 41,600 stores in mainland China, a 25% year-on-year increase, and 4,895 overseas stores, a 13% year-on-year increase [7] - The company opened 10,555 new stores in 2024 while closing 1,609, resulting in a net increase of 8,946 stores [7]

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 24,828.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing a 22.3% increase from RMB 20,302.5 million in 2023[4] - Gross profit increased by 34.4% to RMB 8,060.2 million in 2024, up from RMB 5,999.0 million in 2023, driven by improved gross margins in product sales[7] - Net profit for the year rose by 39.8% to RMB 4,454.2 million, compared to RMB 3,186.6 million in 2023[14] - Revenue from product and equipment sales increased by 21.7% to RMB 24,208.8 million, while franchise and related services revenue surged by 52.8% to RMB 620.1 million[5] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the year were both RMB 12.32, an increase from RMB 8.71 in the previous year[55] - The group's profit attributable to equity holders for 2024 was RMB 4,436,504,000, an increase of 41.4% compared to RMB 3,137,341,000 in 2023[85] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 was RMB 12.32, up 41.4% from RMB 8.71 in 2023[85] - Total revenue for 2024 was RMB 15,558,470,000, compared to RMB 13,502,499,000 in 2023, reflecting a growth of 15.2%[73] Store Network Expansion - The company expanded its store network to over 46,000 locations across China and 11 other countries by the end of 2024[26] - The total number of stores in mainland China increased from 33,234 in 2023 to 41,584 in 2024, representing a growth of 25.1%[31] - The number of franchise stores rose significantly from 37,516 at the end of 2023 to 46,462 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 8,946 stores[35] - The company operates a network of over 46,000 stores, covering all provincial-level cities in mainland China and approximately 4,900 stores outside mainland China as of December 31, 2024[29] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash and financial assets, increased by 63.8% to RMB 11,109.5 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 6,783.6 million in 2023[15] - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 15,266,484 thousand, compared to RMB 10,859,253 thousand in 2023, showing a significant growth in asset base[57] - Non-current assets increased to RMB 7,887,271 thousand from RMB 5,445,381 thousand in 2023, indicating a strong investment in long-term assets[57] - The company's leverage ratio decreased to 23.9% as of December 31, 2024, down from 27.4% in 2023[21] Research and Development - Research and development expenses rose by 23.4% to RMB 104.9 million, maintaining a steady 0.4% of total revenue[11] - The company’s R&D efforts led to the development of a fresh milk base in 2024, aimed at enhancing product taste while meeting health demands[36] - The company aims to enhance its end-to-end supply chain and invest in new technologies and materials for R&D innovation to support its global strategy[43] Strategic Partnerships and Supply Chain - The company has established a strategic partnership with Junlebao to jointly build the "Xuewang Ranch," enhancing supply chain capabilities and product quality[36] - The logistics network includes 27 warehouses in mainland China and localized storage systems in four overseas countries, supporting extensive store coverage[36] - The company maintains rigorous quality control standards to ensure consistent high-quality output across its supply chain[37] Brand and Marketing - The "Snow King" IP has become the only super IP in China's fresh beverage industry, enhancing brand differentiation since its launch in 2018[38] - The "蜜雪冰城" topic on Douyin has achieved over 43.5 billion views as of December 31, 2024, showcasing the brand's strong online presence[39] - The company will continue to deepen its brand IP, "Snow King," by producing diverse high-quality content, including animations and collaborations with leading brands[44] Financial Management - The company did not declare any annual dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024[54] - The company raised approximately HKD 3,313 million from its global offering, which will be used for purposes outlined in the prospectus[51] - The company plans to utilize the net proceeds from the offering as short-term deposits in licensed banks or financial institutions if not used timely for the intended purposes[51] Other Financial Metrics - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 21.3% to RMB 1,599.5 million, accounting for 6.4% of total revenue, consistent with the previous year[9] - Other income and net gains decreased by 11.3% to RMB 219.5 million, primarily due to reduced government subsidies[8] - Government grants received decreased to RMB 32,784,000 from RMB 115,821,000, a decline of 71.7% year-over-year[72] - Interest income rose significantly to RMB 107,015,000, up 98.5% from RMB 53,801,000 in 2023[72] - The expected revenue to be recognized within one year from unfulfilled performance obligations is RMB 359,636,000, compared to RMB 259,271,000 in 2023, reflecting a 38.7% increase[71] - The total amount of unfulfilled performance obligations as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 367,458,000, an increase from RMB 284,246,000 in 2023[71] - The company has no sales to a single customer accounting for 10% or more of total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023[65] - The majority of the company's revenue and operating profit is derived from mainland China[64]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijue Group (2097.HK) [1] Core Insights - Mijue Group has established itself as a leading player in the tea beverage industry in China, with over 45,000 stores across 11 countries as of Q3 2024, achieving a revenue of 18.66 billion yuan [2][11] - The ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing rapid growth, with China's market expected to grow from 517.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.59% [2][37] - The company benefits from a strong supply chain and economies of scale, with a low entry barrier for franchisees and a robust support system for franchisees, leading to rapid store expansion [2][20] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1997, Mijue Group has evolved from a street vendor to a global beverage giant, with significant milestones including the establishment of a central factory and a logistics system [4][20] - The company operates two main brands: Mijue Ice City for tea beverages and Lucky Coffee for coffee, with a focus on affordable pricing [20][18] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 10.35 billion yuan, 13.58 billion yuan, and 20.3 billion yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, with a continuous growth rate exceeding 20% [11] - For the forecasted years 2024 to 2026, revenues are expected to reach 24.82 billion yuan, 30.16 billion yuan, and 33.91 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 4.58 billion yuan, 5.63 billion yuan, and 6.40 billion yuan [2] Market Dynamics - The global ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with the share of ready-to-drink beverages increasing due to their freshness and health benefits compared to bottled drinks [33][34] - The Chinese market, particularly in lower-tier cities, presents substantial growth opportunities, with a projected CAGR of 22.18% for affordable ready-to-drink beverages from 2023 to 2028 [37][40] Competitive Advantages - Mijue Group has established a comprehensive supply chain that includes procurement, production, logistics, and warehousing, which helps stabilize raw material prices and reduce costs [55][63] - The company employs a low-cost franchise model, allowing for rapid expansion and strong profitability for franchisees, with a focus on high-density locations in lower-tier cities [44][51]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its competitive advantages and market positioning [4][47]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the ready-to-drink beverage sector, benefiting from multiple competitive advantages that facilitate rapid growth [4][7]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected CAGR of 18% from 2023 to 2028, indicating substantial future potential [16][18]. - The company has established itself as the largest player in the domestic market, with a market share of 20.9% as of Q3 2024, and a strong presence in both domestic and international markets [6][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 203.02 billion RMB in 2023 to 343.45 billion RMB by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.55%, 25.20%, 18.98%, and 13.56% respectively [5][47]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 31.37 billion RMB in 2023 to 55.98 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 57.13%, 42.58%, 14.45%, and 9.35% respectively [5][47]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high-quality and affordable product strategy, with an average price around 6 RMB, targeting a broad customer base [6][28]. - It holds the largest market share in the ready-to-drink beverage sector in China, with a significant increase in market share from 16.6% in 2021 to 20.9% in Q3 2024 [6][31]. - The company has a leading number of stores, with 45,302 locations as of Q3 2024, making it the largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally [6][35]. - The company emphasizes supply chain efficiency, achieving a high self-production ratio and maintaining lower procurement costs compared to competitors [6][37]. - The "Snow King" IP has become a significant marketing asset, enhancing brand recognition and consumer engagement [6][39]. Market Outlook - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is expected to grow from 5,175 billion RMB in 2023 to 11,634 billion RMB by 2028, with an increasing share of the overall beverage market [20][22]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for affordable ready-to-drink beverages, particularly in lower-tier cities where market growth is robust [20][28].