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蜜雪集团:现制饮品头部品牌,多重竞争优势助公司快速发展-20250318
华源证券· 2025-03-17 23:56
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its competitive advantages and market positioning [4][47]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the ready-to-drink beverage sector, benefiting from multiple competitive advantages that facilitate rapid growth [4][7]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected CAGR of 18% from 2023 to 2028, indicating substantial future potential [16][18]. - The company has established itself as the largest player in the domestic market, with a market share that has consistently increased over recent years [9][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 20,302 million RMB in 2023 to 34,344 million RMB by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.55%, 25.20%, 18.98%, and 13.56% respectively [5][47]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 55.98 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a growth of 42.58% in 2024, followed by 14.45% and 9.35% in subsequent years [5][47]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high-quality and affordable product strategy, with an average price around 6 RMB, catering to a broad customer base [6][28]. - As of Q3 2024, the company has a total of 45,302 stores, making it the largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally by store count [6][35]. - The company emphasizes supply chain efficiency, achieving a high self-production ratio and maintaining lower procurement costs compared to competitors [6][37]. - The "Snow King" IP has significantly enhanced the company's marketing capabilities, contributing to a strong brand presence and customer engagement [6][38]. Market Outlook - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is expected to grow from 5,175 billion RMB in 2023 to 11,634 billion RMB by 2028, with a market share increase from 36.3% to 49.2% of the beverage market [20][22]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for affordable ready-to-drink beverages, particularly in lower-tier cities where market growth is robust [20][28].
蜜雪集团:如何看待已千亿的蜜雪未来空间?—何以为“王”-20250312
东吴证券· 2025-03-11 01:28
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijiu Group (02097.HK), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Mijiu Group is positioned as a leader in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage market, with a significant brand dominance reflected in its extensive store network and strong market presence [8][62]. - The company has a robust growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from 20.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 31.2 billion RMB by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.66% [1]. - Mijiu's net profit is expected to grow from 3.1 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.9 billion RMB in 2026, indicating a strong profitability outlook [1][62]. - The brand's unique IP, "Xue Wang," has significantly enhanced its marketing effectiveness, achieving over 43.5 billion views on social media platforms, which contributes to its brand recognition and consumer engagement [45][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Position and Brand Dominance - Mijiu Group operates over 40,000 stores, far surpassing competitors, which typically have between 3,000 to 9,000 stores, showcasing its market leadership [8][19]. - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2028, positioning Mijiu favorably within this high-growth market [14][15]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to reach 24.0 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 18.36% [1]. - Mijiu's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 8.26 RMB in 2023 to 15.64 RMB by 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [1]. 3. Competitive Landscape - Mijiu holds a market share of over 30% in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage sector, while competitors struggle to establish similar dominance in the mid-priced segment [29][34]. - The mid-priced beverage market is highly competitive, with brands like Luckin Coffee and others vying for market share, but Mijiu's position remains strong in the affordable segment [26][34]. 4. International Expansion and Future Outlook - Mijiu has begun its international expansion, with 4,792 stores outside of mainland China, primarily in Southeast Asia, indicating significant growth potential [54][61]. - The company aims to enhance its supply chain and marketing strategies to support its overseas growth, with plans to enter markets like Japan [58][62].
蜜雪集团:如何看待已千亿的蜜雪未来空间?—何以为“王”-20250311
东吴证券· 2025-03-11 01:04
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijiu Group (02097.HK), marking its first coverage [8][62]. Core Insights - Mijiu Group is positioned as a leader in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage market, with a significant brand dominance reflected in its extensive store network and strong market share [8][62]. - The company has a robust end-to-end supply chain and leverages its "Xue Wang" IP for effective brand marketing, which enhances consumer engagement and brand recognition [8][62]. - Mijiu's projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 43.8 billion, 51.2 billion, and 59.4 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28, 24, and 21 [8][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Position and Brand Dominance - Mijiu Group operates over 40,000 stores in China, significantly outpacing competitors, which typically have between 3,000 to 9,000 stores [8][19]. - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong market potential for Mijiu [14][15]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported total revenue of 13.576 billion RMB in 2022, with a projected increase to 31.232 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 31.15% [8][62]. - Mijiu's net profit for 2022 was 1.997 billion RMB, expected to rise to 5.937 billion RMB by 2026, showcasing a strong growth trajectory [8][62]. 3. Competitive Landscape - Mijiu holds a market share of over 30% in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage segment, while competitors struggle to establish a similar level of brand dominance [8][29]. - The mid-priced beverage market is highly competitive, with brands like Heytea and Luckin Coffee vying for market share, but Mijiu remains the clear leader in the affordable segment [8][19]. 4. Brand Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The "Xue Wang" IP has generated over 43.5 billion views on social media platforms, significantly enhancing brand visibility and consumer connection [8][45]. - Mijiu's marketing strategy integrates both online and offline channels, effectively reaching a broad consumer base [8][45]. 5. Expansion and Future Outlook - Mijiu is actively pursuing international expansion, with a focus on Southeast Asia, where it has already established a significant presence [8][54]. - The company aims to increase its overseas store count, which currently stands at 4,792, representing about 10.6% of its total stores [8][54].