Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 国盛证券·2025-03-27 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 27.6% in 2024, reaching CNY 54.45 billion, with a net profit of CNY 4.41 billion, up 11.5% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 showed a decline in net profit due to asset impairment [1][2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the increase in both volume and price in the electrolytic aluminum segment, with a notable rise in the average price of alumina by 39% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is enhancing its resource security and competitive advantage through integrated operations, focusing on the development of alumina resources in Yunnan province [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 54.45 billion, a 27.6% increase from the previous year. The net profit was CNY 4.41 billion, reflecting an 11.5% growth. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of CNY 15.27 billion, an 18.3% increase year-on-year, but a significant drop in net profit by 59.2% year-on-year due to asset impairment [1][4] - The production figures for 2024 included alumina output of 1.409 million tons (down 1.4% year-on-year), electrolytic aluminum output of 2.938 million tons (up 22.5% year-on-year), and aluminum processing products output of 1.254 million tons (up 1.8% year-on-year) [2] Market Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is nearing its capacity limit of 44 million tons, while demand is shifting towards high-end markets, indicating a potential for price increases in the future [3] - The report anticipates that the average prices for electrolytic aluminum and alumina will gradually rise from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of CNY 6.81 billion, CNY 8.10 billion, and CNY 9.02 billion for those years [3][4] Strategic Positioning - The company is positioned as a leader in the green aluminum industry, leveraging its integrated supply chain to enhance resource and cost advantages. The focus on alumina and carbon resources is expected to mitigate risks associated with raw material price fluctuations [2][3]