塔牌集团（002233）：深耕粤东优势市场，小而美，高股息

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company has a strong market presence in the East Guangdong region, with over 50 years in the cement industry, leading to high brand recognition and market share [1]. - In 2024, the cement industry is expected to face downward pressure, with national fixed asset investment projected to grow by 3.2% and real estate development investment declining by 10.6% [1]. - Despite industry challenges, the company demonstrates operational resilience, with cement sales of 1,585.9 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, and a revenue of 4.28 billion yuan [2]. - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout, with a proposed dividend of 0.45 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 5.37 billion yuan [2]. - The cement industry is set to be included in the carbon market, which may help advanced companies recover profitability by eliminating outdated production capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a significant market share in the East Guangdong cement market, with production bases in Meizhou, Huizhou, and Longyan [1]. Market Conditions - In 2024, the cement consumption in Guangdong is expected to decline by 10.7%, with a total consumption of 13.82 million tons [1]. - The overall cement production in China is projected to decrease by 9.5% to 1.83 billion tons [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.28 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 540 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 27.5% year-on-year [4]. - The estimated cement price per ton is 238.2 yuan, down 16.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.1% [2]. Future Projections - The company aims for cement sales of over 1.63 million tons in 2025, with a target net profit of 530 million yuan [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.16 billion yuan, 4.10 billion yuan, and 4.02 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight decline each year [3].