POP MART(09992) 国信证券·2025-03-27 12:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth of 107% and net profit growth of 189% are driven by overseas expansion and category diversification. For 2024, the projected revenue is 13.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with net profit expected to reach 3.13 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 188.8% [9][4]. - The company's IP matrix is continuously optimized, with 13 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in revenue. Notably, mature IPs like MOLLY and THE MONSTERS have shown strong growth, with revenue increases of 105.2% and 726.6% respectively [2][14]. - The plush toy category has performed exceptionally well, with revenue from plush toys growing by 1289% year-on-year. The company is also preparing short video content to enrich its IP offerings and attract new users [3][15]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.02 billion, 6.30 billion, and 7.88 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 25.3%, and 25.2% [4][19]. - The projected diluted EPS for the same period is 3.74, 4.69, and 5.87 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 28, and 22 times [4][19]. Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 66.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas sales and supply chain optimization [12][4]. - The company plans to open 100 new stores in 2025, with existing overseas stores totaling 130. Revenue from overseas markets has seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 619% in Southeast Asia and 310% in Europe and Oceania [17][4].