Weichai Power(000338) 海通证券·2025-03-28 05:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - Weichai Power's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 215.69 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%. The net profit is expected to reach 11.403 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 26.5% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, with sales revenue estimated between 226.5 billion and 237.3 billion RMB, representing a growth of approximately 5-10% [7][8]. - The report highlights strong performance in high-end power systems and logistics equipment, with significant growth in the M series high-power density engines and the Kael Group's logistics solutions [7][8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial data for Weichai Power includes: - Revenue: 213,958 million RMB in 2023, projected to grow to 235,520 million RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - Net Profit: 9,014 million RMB in 2023, expected to increase to 12,645 million RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - EPS: Expected to rise from 1.03 RMB in 2023 to 1.45 RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 22.4% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2027 [6][11]. - ROE: Projected to increase from 13.2% in 2024 to 16.2% in 2027 [6][11]. Business Segment Performance - The revenue forecast by business segment for 2024 includes: - Intelligent Logistics: 88,726 million RMB - Agricultural Equipment: 18,345 million RMB - Complete Vehicles and Key Components: 89,779 million RMB [8]. - The gross profit margin for Intelligent Logistics is expected to be 26.9% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 28.0% by 2027 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range for Weichai Power at 18.84 to 21.74 RMB per share, based on a PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2025 [7][9].