Air China(601111) 信达证券·2025-03-28 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (601111) based on the expected recovery in international routes and improving demand dynamics [8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses, with a net profit of -2.37 billion yuan for 2024, an improvement of 8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a 77.3% reduction in losses [6][8]. - The operational metrics show a strong recovery, with total Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increasing by 21.7% and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rising by 32.8% in 2024 [4]. - The average ticket price has seen a decline of 12.1% year-on-year, but cost reductions and a potential recovery in demand are expected to enhance profitability moving forward [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, representing an 18.1% year-on-year increase [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.37 billion yuan, a significant improvement from the previous year [6]. - Quarterly net profits showed fluctuations, with Q1 to Q4 results of -16.7 billion, -11 billion, 41.4 billion, and -16 billion yuan respectively [6]. Operational Metrics - The total ASK for 2024 was up by 21.7%, with domestic ASK increasing by 5.4% and international routes recovering to 85.5% of 2019 levels [4]. - The overall passenger load factor improved to 79.9%, with domestic and international load factors at 81.5% and 75.9% respectively [4]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average ticket price in the industry fell by 12.1% year-on-year, while the company's unit revenue per RPK decreased by 12.4% [5]. - The average fuel price dropped by 7% year-on-year, contributing to a 3% reduction in unit ASK costs [5]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 53.92 billion, 78.91 billion, and 101 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating substantial growth [8]. - The anticipated recovery in international travel and a stabilizing supply-demand balance are expected to drive future profitability [8].