CNOOC-中国海油（600938）：2024年产量超指引增长，保持低桶油成本竞争优势

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 420.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.94%, with a net profit of 137.9 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.4% year-on-year [1] - The net production for 2024 is projected to be 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE), a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, exceeding the upper limit of production guidance [2] - The company maintains a competitive advantage with a barrel of oil cost projected to decrease to $28.52 per barrel in 2024, a decline of 1.1% year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 144.7 billion, 149.9 billion, and 152.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with A-share PE valuations of 8.7, 8.4, and 8.2 [5][8] - The expected dividend yield for A-shares in 2025 is 5.2% and for H-shares is 7.9% [5] Production and Cost Efficiency - The company anticipates an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% in production from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The domestic production is expected to grow by 5.6% year-on-year, while overseas production is projected to increase by 10.8% year-on-year, driven by contributions from new oil and gas fields [2] Market Conditions - In Q4 2024, the average oil price is expected to be$ 70.1 per barrel, with a widening discount compared to Brent prices [4] - Natural gas prices are projected to decrease by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, potentially influenced by falling oil prices and warmer winter conditions [4]