Changshu Bank(601128) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-28 14:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank achieved a revenue of 10.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.8 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [4][6] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.77% in Q4 2024, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 28 percentage points to 500.5% [4][10] - The report highlights that despite a slowdown in revenue growth, Changshu Bank remains a leader in the industry, with net interest income growing by 7.5% year-on-year in 2024 [6][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for Changshu Bank are as follows: - Total revenue (million yuan): 2023: 9,870.29, 2024: 10,909.24, 2025E: 11,601.01, 2026E: 12,497.16, 2027E: 13,688.58 [5] - Net profit (million yuan): 2023: 3,281.50, 2024: 3,813.26, 2025E: 4,199.74, 2026E: 4,761.43, 2027E: 5,452.48 [5] - The forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 10.1% for 2025, 13.4% for 2026, and 14.5% for 2027 [10] Loan and Asset Quality - Loan growth for Changshu Bank was 8.3% in Q4 2024, with total new loans of 18.4 billion yuan for the year, down from 29 billion yuan in 2023 [6][10] - The report notes that the bank's asset pricing remains under pressure, contributing to a continued narrowing of the net interest margin, which was 2.68% in 2024 [6][10] Market Position and Outlook - Changshu Bank is positioned to continue its strong performance in the industry, driven by stable growth policies and a gradual recovery in demand from the real economy [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.72 for 2025, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10]