CGN POWER(003816) 华创证券·2025-03-28 15:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) [1][9] Core Views - The company is expected to have sufficient growth potential in the long term, supported by stable power generation and a strong project pipeline [9] - Revenue for Q4 2024 reached 24.534 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.05%, while total revenue for 2024 was 86.804 billion, up 5.16% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 was 0.830 billion, a decrease of 18.98% year-on-year, with a total net profit of 10.814 billion for 2024, reflecting a growth of 0.83% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the total installed capacity of the company was 31.798 GW, with total power generation of approximately 242.181 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.08% [2] - The total grid-connected power was about 227.284 billion kWh, also up 6.13% year-on-year [2] - The increase in costs, particularly in nuclear fuel, fixed asset depreciation, and provisions for spent fuel disposal, negatively impacted performance, with costs rising by 13.12%, 11.59%, and 17.43% respectively [2] Project Development - As of August 19, 2024, five nuclear power projects, including the Zhaoyuan Phase I and Lufeng Phase I projects, were approved, marking a significant step in project reserves [3] - The Huizhou Unit 1 is in the commissioning phase and is expected to be operational by 2025, while Cangnan Unit 1 and Huizhou Unit 2 are in equipment installation and commissioning stages, expected to be operational by 2026 [3] - By the end of 2024, the company had eight nuclear power units under construction with a total capacity of 9,738 MW, a year-on-year increase of 62.08% [3] Financial Projections - The financial forecast for 2024A to 2027E shows total revenue increasing from 86.804 billion in 2024 to 106.097 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 5.2%, 4.2%, 7.7%, and 8.9% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 10.814 billion in 2024 to 12.175 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 0.8%, 0.4%, 4.8%, and 7.0% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 4.3 yuan, with an expected upside of approximately 18% from the current price of 3.64 yuan [4][9]