云铝股份（000807）：原铝板块量价齐升，成本端拖累Q4业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 54.45 billion yuan, up 27.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year. However, Q4 performance was under pressure, with revenue of 15.27 billion yuan, up 18.3% year-on-year, but net profit down 60.5% year-on-year and 55.5% quarter-on-quarter [8] - The aluminum segment experienced both volume and price increases, with production of primary aluminum at 2.938 million tons, up 22.5% year-on-year, and an expected high capacity utilization rate for 2025 [8] - The report highlights the impact of rising alumina prices on costs, with Q4 alumina prices reaching an average of 5,004 yuan per ton, up 67.5% year-on-year, but anticipates a recovery in profit margins for 2025 as alumina prices have since decreased [8] - The company is positioned well within the green aluminum supply chain, benefiting from long-term cost advantages and expected demand growth in the renewable energy sector [8] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards for 2025-2026, with net profit estimates of 7.558 billion yuan and 8.684 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's profitability [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 54.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.61% for 2025 and 9.01% for 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 7.558 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 71.32% year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 2.18 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 7.97 [1] Production and Pricing - The company produced 2.938 million tons of primary aluminum in 2024, with a significant increase in production capacity utilization due to improved power supply conditions [8] - The average price of primary aluminum in 2024 was 19,922 yuan per ton, up 6.5% year-on-year, driven by increased demand in the renewable energy sector [8] Cost and Profitability - The report notes that alumina prices have surged, impacting costs negatively, but anticipates a recovery in profit margins as prices decline [8] - The company’s profitability is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms in the aluminum industry, which limit new capacity additions [8]