MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 东吴证券·2025-03-30 06:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 88.68 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.105 billion yuan, down 97.8% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of 44.0 billion yuan, a decline of 7.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.34 billion yuan [7] - The company's liquid milk revenue was under pressure due to weak demand and proactive destocking, with liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, cheese, and other product revenues declining by 11%, 13%, 14%, 0.9%, and increasing by 18% respectively in 2024 [7] - The gross margin and operating profit margin (OPM) exceeded expectations, benefiting from cost reductions, with the gross margin increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% in 2024 [7] - The company faced impairment losses and joint venture losses that affected profits, but there is optimism for earnings elasticity in 2025 due to expected improvements in industry supply and demand [7] - Capital expenditures decreased by 14% to 3.58 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on shareholder returns, increasing the dividend payout ratio by 5 percentage points to 45% [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 88.9 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 5.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4972% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.03 yuan, with subsequent years showing an increase to 1.35 yuan in 2025, 1.56 yuan in 2026, and 1.74 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 681.80 for 2024, decreasing to 13.44 in 2025, 11.67 in 2026, and 10.45 in 2027 [1][8]