AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA(601288) 光大证券·2025-03-31 01:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) [1] Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 710.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [4] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 is 1.42%, showing a narrowing trend but with a slowdown in the rate of decline in the second half of the year [9] - Non-interest income increased by 5.5% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue growth [10] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.3% and a coverage ratio of 300% [11][12] Revenue and Profitability - The bank's revenue and profit growth accelerated, with revenue growth of 2.3% and net profit growth of 4.7% for the year [5] - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 10.46%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The cost-to-income ratio is 34.4%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - The bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.2% and 10.2% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The bank's deposits increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in demand deposits [7] - The county-level business maintained a high growth rate, with loans in this sector increasing by 12.3% year-on-year [6] Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The core tier 1 capital ratio is 11.4%, indicating a solid capital position [12] - The bank's risk compensation ability is robust, with a credit cost of 0.55%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [11] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased, reflecting effective risk management strategies [11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 0.83, 0.85, and 0.87 yuan, respectively [13] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.11 for 2025 [13]