CHINA RAILWAY(601390) 国投证券·2025-03-31 06:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 6.66 CNY [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.16 trillion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.887 billion CNY, down 16.71% year-on-year [2][3] - The fourth quarter showed significant improvement in cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 99.308 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37.76% [3] - The company’s overseas revenue reached 68.644 billion CNY, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 10.26% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company’s revenue decreased across all quarters, with quarterly growth rates of -2.56%, -12.34%, -6.13%, and -10.27% respectively [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 9.98%, a decline of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, with most business segments experiencing a decrease in gross margin [3] - The company’s net profit margin fell to 2.66%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining gross margins and increased expense ratios [3] Business Segments - The infrastructure segment generated 992.853 billion CNY in revenue, down 8.71% year-on-year, while the design consulting segment saw a smaller decline of 4.59% [2] - The emerging business segment, which is a focus for the company, achieved a new contract value of 425.74 billion CNY, up 11.3% year-on-year, with significant growth in water conservancy and clean energy contracts [10] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.24 trillion CNY, 1.32 trillion CNY, and 1.40 trillion CNY, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 7.0%, 6.5%, and 6.0% respectively [11] - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 30 billion CNY, 32.2 billion CNY, and 34.3 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 7.71%, 7.20%, and 6.49% [11]