SUN PAPER(002078) 群益证券·2025-03-31 06:33Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [7]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the integrated forestry-pulp-paper industry in China, showing resilience with revenue and profit growth despite industry pressures in 2024. The recovery in cultural paper prices is expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [7]. - The company has a robust production capacity and a strong integrated supply chain, which positions it well for future growth as the market for cultural paper improves [7]. - Earnings forecasts suggest a gradual increase in net profit from 31 billion RMB in 2024 to 38 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding EPS growth [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the light industry manufacturing sector, with a current A-share price of 14.90 RMB as of March 28, 2025, and a market capitalization of 413.52 billion RMB [2]. Recent Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 407.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, and a net profit of 31.26 billion RMB, up 1.29% year-on-year [7]. - Despite a challenging market, the company’s revenue and profit grew, showcasing its operational strength [7]. Market Conditions - The paper industry faced price declines in various segments, with double glue paper and copper plate paper prices dropping by 8.7% and 6.3% respectively in 2024. However, the company managed to grow its financials [7]. - Cultural paper prices are expected to rise in 2025 due to supply constraints and strong pricing intentions from producers [7]. Production Capacity - The company has a total production capacity exceeding 12 million tons, with significant investments in new production lines planned to support future growth [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 31 billion RMB, 35 billion RMB, and 38 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.1 RMB, 1.3 RMB, and 1.4 RMB [9]. - The current A-share price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13 times for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to future earnings growth [9].