华鲁恒升（600426）：业绩符合预期，静待景气修复

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a favorable investment outlook with potential for price appreciation [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 34.226 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25.55%, and a net profit of 3.903 billion RMB, up 9.14% year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from new capacity releases, particularly in its fertilizer and acetic acid segments, which have seen significant volume increases [5]. - The report highlights that the chemical product prices are at a historical low, suggesting limited downside risk and potential for profit recovery [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, with a market capitalization of 46.122 billion RMB and a current share price of 21.80 RMB as of March 28, 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 34.226 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.903 billion RMB, with Q4 revenue at 9.046 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 14.31% [5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.6 RMB per share for the year, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.75% based on the closing price [5]. Product Segmentation - The company's product mix includes 50% from new energy materials, 22% from fertilizers, 12% from acetic acid and derivatives, and 9% from other products [2]. - The new production capacities are expected to significantly boost sales volumes in 2024, with notable increases in fertilizer and acetic acid sales [5]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the prices of key chemical products are currently at the bottom of their historical ranges, with expectations for stabilization and potential recovery in profit margins [5][7]. - The cost pressures are expected to ease due to declining raw material prices, particularly coal [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.1 billion RMB in 2025, 4.7 billion RMB in 2026, and 5.3 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 5%, 14%, and 14% respectively [7]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.93 RMB, 2.19 RMB, and 2.50 RMB, respectively, indicating a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11, 10, and 9 times [7].