SF Holding(002352) 国海证券·2025-03-31 08:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in revenue growth and substantial shareholder returns, recommending active investment in the company [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [4][10] - The report emphasizes the dual drivers of express logistics and supply chain/international operations, leading to double-digit revenue growth in 2024 [6] Performance Summary - In 2024, the company completed 13.26 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with an average price per parcel of 15.5 yuan, down 6.2% [5] - The company’s revenue from express logistics was 205.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [6] - The net profit margin improved from 3.2% to 3.6% year-on-year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7][10] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% [10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 11.62 billion yuan, 13.23 billion yuan, and 15.14 billion yuan for the same years, with a consistent growth rate of 14% [10][12] Shareholder Returns - The company’s capital expenditure decreased by 27% to 9.9 billion yuan in 2024, with free cash flow increasing by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan, supporting dividends and share buybacks [10] - The total cash dividend as a percentage of net profit has increased from 20% in 2022 to 40% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10]