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三生制药(01530):核心产品销售稳健增长,创新管线快速推进
015303SBIO(01530) 国信证券·2025-03-31 08:44

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with projected revenue of 9.11 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 16.5% increase. Gross profit is expected to reach 7.83 billion yuan, up 17.9%, with a gross margin improvement to 86% [1][9]. - The core product, Tebentafusp, achieved sales of 5.062 billion yuan, a 20.4% increase, capturing 66.6% of the Chinese market for thrombocytopenia treatment. The company has also successfully renewed its medical insurance contracts [2][12]. - The innovative pipeline is progressing rapidly, with the dual antibody product 707 showing promising clinical results in lung cancer and colorectal cancer trials, achieving an overall response rate (ORR) of 70.8% in monotherapy for PD-L1 positive NSCLC [3][14][17]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.09 billion yuan in 2024, a 34.9% increase, with adjusted operating net profit reaching 2.32 billion yuan, up 18.8% [1][9]. - R&D expenses are projected to rise significantly to 1.327 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 66.9% increase, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [1][9]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 includes net profits of 2.39 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 3.07 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.1%, 13.7%, and 13.1% [4][20]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its commercial footprint through strategic collaborations in various therapeutic areas, including nephrology, oncology, and metabolic diseases. In 2024, three new drugs are expected to be approved, and four new drug applications are under review [15][19]. - The dual antibody 707 is positioned favorably in the market, with ongoing clinical trials and a strong potential for international licensing opportunities [19][20].