2025年，中国创新药BD交易总额历史性突破千亿美元，并出现百亿美元级订单，跨国药企支付的首付 款站在12.5亿美元的新台阶。 如果要挑选2025年的股市关键词，创新药一定是其中之一。2025年1月至9月，多只创新药企股票实现翻 倍上涨，而支撑行业在二级市场受热捧的，并非传统意义上的已上市药品带来的业绩增长，而是在研创 新药通过BD交易出海带来的想象空间。 年度标志性交易刷新多项纪录： 1月，启光德健与美国Biohaven、韩国AimedBio达成的超130亿美元合作，涵盖同类首创FGFR3靶点 ADC药物GQ1011的全球权益授权，同时涉及21个ADC靶点的联合开发平台，是中国ADC底层技术能力 获得国际背书的里程碑。 2025年初，迪哲医药（688192.SH）研发的肺癌靶向药向美国FDA递交新药上市申请并获得优先审评资 格，7月该药正式获批，成为中国首款独立研发在美获批的全球首创新药。7月，凯思凯迪研发的1类新 药CS0159口服片剂获FDA突破性疗法认定。8月，禾元生物（688765.SH）研发的重组人白蛋白注射液 获FDA批准开展三期临床试验。12月，康宁杰瑞（09966.HK）研发的HER2双抗A ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug concept stocks have declined, with companies such as 3SBio, Kelun-Botai Biopharmaceuticals falling over 3%, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, China Biologic Products, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical dropping over 2% [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug-related ETFs have also seen a decline of over 2% [1] Group 2 - Current analysis indicates that the healthcare sector presents multiple investment opportunities, with the CXO industry experiencing sustained improvement due to a recovery in overseas orders and domestic capacity reduction, while still having room for valuation recovery [2] - The medical device sector is benefiting from domestic equipment upgrade policies and overseas market expansion, with continuous catalysts in cutting-edge areas such as brain-computer interfaces and AI imaging [2] - Internet healthcare is seeing improved operational efficiency in the context of deepening medical insurance payment reforms, leading to a clearer profit growth trajectory [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The proportion of driver gene-negative non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is approximately 31% in both China and the United States, indicating a significant market opportunity for treatments targeting this demographic [2][15] - The estimated market size for immune drugs used in first-line treatment of driver gene-negative NSCLC is projected to be around 7.5 billion CNY (approximately 1.1 billion USD) in China and 18 billion CNY (approximately 2.7 billion USD) in the United States by 2030 [2] - The current first-line treatment for advanced driver gene-negative NSCLC primarily relies on PD(L)-1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy, but there are limitations in long-term efficacy and options for patients intolerant to chemotherapy [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: NSCLC Global Overview - Lung cancer is the leading cancer type globally, with new cases accounting for approximately 12% of all cancer cases in 2022, translating to about 2.5 million new lung cancer cases [10] - In China, lung cancer represents about 22% of new cancer cases, with approximately 1.06 million new cases in 2022 [10] Section 2: Market Potential for Driver Gene-Negative NSCLC - The report highlights the significant market potential for immune therapies in treating driver gene-negative NSCLC, with a focus on the limitations of current treatment options [2][3] Section 3: Next-Generation Immunotherapy Approaches - The report discusses the advancements in dual (multi) antibody therapies and immune-oncology (IO) combined with antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), emphasizing their potential to improve treatment outcomes for patients with driver gene-negative NSCLC [5][8] - The clinical data supporting these new therapies is expected to catalyze further investment and development in this area [5] Section 4: Treatment Guidelines Comparison - The report compares treatment guidelines for driver gene-negative NSCLC between the United States and China, noting differences in treatment stratification and recommended therapies [32][34] - The U.S. guidelines emphasize PD-L1 expression levels, while Chinese guidelines focus more on performance status (PS) [32][34] Section 5: Future Catalysts - Key upcoming clinical data releases and studies are highlighted as potential catalysts for investment opportunities in the sector, particularly regarding dual antibodies and ADC therapies [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector, particularly for innovative drugs and companies expected to reach profitability in 2025 [1][9][15]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to see significant growth due to the commercialization of core products and contributions from business development (BD) revenues, with companies like BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others expected to achieve profitability [1][9]. - The Pharma sub-sector is projected to experience a revenue growth rate of 15-20% in 2025, with notable companies such as Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products leading this growth [2][10]. - The CXO sector is also expected to report strong performance, with companies like WuXi AppTec forecasting substantial revenue and profit increases [3][11]. - The medical services sector is currently valued at historical lows, with a projected revenue growth of 13% for Genscript Biotech, highlighting the importance of monitoring industry changes [4][12]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - Companies expected to achieve profitability in 2025 include BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, driven by increased commercialization and BD revenues [1][9]. Pharma - Revenue growth of 15-20% is expected for leading companies such as Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products, with a significant boost anticipated for 3SBio due to a major BD deal with Pfizer [2][10]. CXO - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve approximately 454.56 billion RMB in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with adjusted net profits expected to rise significantly [3][11]. Medical Services - Genscript Biotech is expected to see a revenue increase of 13% in 2025, emphasizing the need to focus on overseas business expansion and AI integration in traditional medicine [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the commercialization of innovative drugs, combined with licensing income, is expected to lead to profitability for several companies in 2025, including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [1][9]. - The Pharma sub-sector is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15-20% in 2025 for companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products, with a significant revenue increase expected for 3SBio due to a major business development deal with Pfizer [2][10]. - The CXO sector is also expected to show strong performance, with companies like WuXi AppTec forecasting a revenue increase of approximately 15.84% and a net profit growth of about 102.65% in 2025 [3][11]. - In the medical services sector, the report notes that valuations are at historical lows, with a projected revenue growth of 13% for GuoShengTang in 2025, emphasizing the importance of overseas business expansion and AI integration in traditional Chinese medicine [4][12]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report anticipates that several innovative drug companies will reach profitability in 2025 due to increased commercialization and business development income [9][15]. Pharma - The Pharma sub-sector is expected to see a revenue growth of 15-20% in 2025 for key players, with 3SBio projected to achieve over 100% growth due to a significant partnership with Pfizer [2][10]. CXO - WuXi AppTec is expected to report a revenue of approximately 454.56 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit growth of around 102.65% [3][11]. Medical Services - GuoShengTang is projected to have a revenue growth of 13% in 2025, with a focus on overseas acquisitions and AI applications in traditional medicine [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) has shown a slight increase in performance, with a closing rise of 0.79% and a trading volume of 849 million yuan on February 6, 2024 [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) was established on January 3, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 5, 2024, the fund's total shares stood at 10.244 billion, with a total size of 7.906 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.36% decrease in shares and a 0.13% increase in size since December 31, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount for the ETF reached 21.573 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 1.079 billion yuan [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, the ETF has recorded a cumulative trading amount of 29.237 billion yuan over 25 trading days, averaging 1.169 billion yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund manager is Ma Jun, who has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 56.50% during the management period [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - The top holdings of the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) include: - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (10.44% holding, 108 million shares, market value of 825 million yuan) [2] - BeiGene (9.91% holding, 4.8299 million shares, market value of 782 million yuan) [2] - CanSino Biologics (9.72% holding, 7.52 million shares, market value of 768 million yuan) [2] - China Biologic Products (9.66% holding, 13.7 million shares, market value of 763 million yuan) [2] - Innovent Biologics (9.53% holding, 10.9295 million shares, market value of 753 million yuan) [2] - Other notable holdings include 3SBio, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and Kelun-Biotech [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Outperform" rating for multiple companies in the healthcare sector, including BeiGene, JD Health, WuXi Biologics, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macro and industry environment is improving due to the resolution of policy uncertainties, the release of significant clinical data, and a resurgence in global M&A activity, leading to a notable increase in investor sentiment towards innovative drugs for 2026 [4][11]. - In oncology, the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody approach is transitioning from "mechanism validation" to "clinical and industrial resonance," with multiple global Phase III trials underway, expected to catalyze approvals and data releases within the year [5][17]. - The metabolic sector is seeing growth in the cash-pay market for GLP-1 drugs, driven by limited insurance coverage and high out-of-pocket costs, prompting companies to enhance accessibility through direct sales and pricing adjustments [6][25]. - In the autoimmune space, there is a growing concentration risk among major products from multinational corporations (MNCs), with new antibody platforms expected to yield significant data in 2026, potentially leading to new business development opportunities [7]. - The central nervous system (CNS) investment focus remains on advancing Aβ monoclonal antibody treatments, with key data expected to open up early intervention market opportunities [9]. Summary by Sections Oncology - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody's clinical and industrial certainty is strengthening, with major companies conducting multiple global Phase III trials across high-value indications [17]. - The Pan-RAS precision therapy is entering a realization phase, with key Phase III data expected in 2026 for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC [22]. Metabolic - The cash-pay market for GLP-1 drugs is expanding due to limited insurance coverage, with companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk adopting different direct-to-consumer strategies to enhance accessibility [25][26]. - Small nucleic acid therapies are expected to upgrade treatment paradigms, showing competitive data in weight loss and safety profiles when combined with GLP-1 [30]. Autoimmune - MNCs are increasingly reliant on a few blockbuster products, with structural opportunities arising from new antibody platforms expected to report data in 2026 [7]. - The trend towards oral formulations in autoimmune diseases is gaining traction, offering advantages in adherence and competitive differentiation [7]. CNS - The focus in CNS remains on Aβ monoclonal antibody treatments, with advancements expected to shift treatment towards earlier intervention populations [9]. - New delivery methods, such as systemic administration of small nucleic acids, are being explored as complementary approaches [9].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年1月31日 | | | | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | 三生制药（「本公司」） | | | | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年2月4日 | | | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | | | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01530 | 說明 | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上月底結存 | 50,000,000,000 | USD | 0.00001 | USD | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | USD | | | 本月底結存 | 50,000,000,000 | USD ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the leading CDN service provider, Wangsu Technology, is expected to benefit significantly from the recent price increases announced by major overseas cloud service providers due to rising AI training demands, indicating a potential pricing restructuring in the global cloud computing market [4][5]. - Wangsu Technology has a strong global presence with over 2,800 edge nodes across more than 90 countries, and its core CDN and edge computing business generated revenue of 2.177 billion yuan, accounting for 62.35% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][6]. - The company's cybersecurity business is emerging as a key profit source, achieving revenue of 1.031 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 78.90%, indicating a strong synergy with its CDN client base [6][7]. Group 2 - The report notes that Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings report revealed a total revenue of $94.827 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, with a net profit of $3.794 billion, down 46% year-over-year, highlighting challenges in the automotive sector [12]. - BYD announced the launch of its Tian Shen Zhi Yan 5.0 advanced driver assistance system, which incorporates the latest large model version and claims to enhance driving stability and response times [13]. - The automotive sector's performance is under scrutiny, with the A-share automotive index underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating potential challenges in the market [11][14]. Group 3 - The report discusses the significant outflow from broad-based ETFs, with a net outflow of 316.754 billion yuan, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals saw net inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [16][17]. - The macroeconomic environment remains balanced but cautious, with the central bank conducting substantial reverse repos and medium-term lending facility operations, impacting short and long-term interest rates [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to be aware of the potential for market volatility and the importance of monitoring central bank actions and economic indicators [16][17]. Group 4 - The service consumption policy has been strengthened, with the government promoting initiatives to enhance service consumption in sectors such as transportation, tourism, and home services, which is expected to boost economic activity [18][19]. - Companies in the human resources service sector, such as Core International, are projected to see significant growth in net profit, driven by increased demand for talent due to technological innovation and industry integration [20]. - The tourism sector is also expected to benefit from the upcoming holiday season, with companies like Three Gorges Tourism forecasting a decline in net profit due to tax payments and asset impairments, indicating challenges in the sector [21]. Group 5 - ASML reported a Q4 2025 revenue of €9.718 billion, with a net profit of €2.840 billion, and a significant order value of €13.158 billion, indicating strong demand for its products [24][25]. - The company anticipates a revenue range of €34-39 billion for 2026, driven by robust demand for logic and DRAM products, particularly in the EUV segment [26]. - ASML's optimistic outlook is supported by its strong order book and the expected growth in the semiconductor market, particularly in advanced manufacturing processes [26][27]. Group 6 - Wanchen Group is projected to achieve a revenue of 50-52.8 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 54.7%-63.3%, with net profit expected to increase significantly [28][29]. - The company is expanding its store network, with an estimated 18,000 stores by the end of 2025, and is focusing on enhancing its supply chain and operational efficiency to improve profitability [30][31]. - The report indicates that Wanchen Group's strong performance is attributed to its strategic focus on core competencies and the effective management of its supply chain and logistics [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its overseas clinical trials for the drug SSGJ-707, with a significant upfront payment of 2.89 billion RMB from Pfizer, contributing to an expected total revenue of 9.63 billion RMB from this authorization in 2025 [6][7]. - Pfizer has initiated the first patient enrollment for the Phase III clinical trial of SSGJ-707 targeting mCRC, marking a significant milestone as the first MRCT Phase III trial conducted by a multinational corporation in the PD-1/VEGF field [7]. - The company has a rich pipeline with multiple catalysts expected in 2026, including the anticipated approval of three new molecular entities and the ongoing progress of global Phase III clinical trials for SSGJ-707 [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 19.216 billion RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 111%, followed by 11.085 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a decline of 42%, and a recovery to 12.906 billion RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 16% [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 10.967 billion RMB in 2025, with a significant increase of 425%, followed by a decrease to 2.443 billion RMB in 2026, and an increase to 3.411 billion RMB in 2027 [9][10]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.8x for 2025, 21.6x for 2026, and 15.4x for 2027, indicating a potential for valuation adjustments as new products are launched [9][10].