利率债周报：债市有所回暖，收益率曲线延续陡峭化-2025-03-31

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the central bank's net injection supported the tax - period liquidity, leading to a recovery in the bond market. The long - term bond yields first declined and then rose, with an overall downward trend. Short - term interest rates also continued to fall, and the yield curve continued to steepen. [1] - This week, the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term improvement in economic data has limited impact on the bond market, and there is uncertainty about the monetary policy. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.9%. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - Secondary Market: The bond market recovered last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.38% in total. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 3.32bp, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 3.00bp compared with the previous Friday. The term spread slightly narrowed. [2] - Primary Market: A total of 92 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, an increase of 31 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 822.8 billion yuan, an increase of 316.7 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 691.9 billion yuan, an increase of 486.8 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds all increased compared with the previous week. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. [10] 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - The central bank adjusted the MLF operation from single - price winning to multi - price winning. This change will further dilute the policy - rate nature of the MLF winning rate and highlight the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy rate. The increased MLF roll - over in March may be related to factors such as the outflow of non - bank funds and the suspension of Treasury bond purchases, and may also imply a delay in reserve requirement ratio cuts. [13] 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, the blast furnace operating rate and daily average pig iron output continued to rise, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate slightly declined, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically flat compared with the previous week. [14] - On the demand side, the BDI index slightly declined, the export container freight index CCFI continued to fall, and the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to rise. [14] - In terms of prices, the pork price continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased. The prices of rebar and crude oil both rose, while the copper price slightly declined. [14] 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 300.1 billion yuan last week. [25] - R007 and DR007 both increased significantly, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly, the discount rates of national and stock - owned banks for various terms all increased, the trading volume of pledged repurchase significantly decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio significantly increased. [26]