CHALCO(601600) 民生证券·2025-03-31 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit of 12.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 85.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a significant net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, up 147.96% year-on-year and 69.14% quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. - The profitability of the alumina segment has significantly increased, with alumina prices rising and contributing to the overall profit despite a slight decline in aluminum profit per ton [3][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are highlighted as key advantages, with a focus on the potential for value reassessment under the "special valuation" framework [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.88% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [7][20]. - The alumina segment contributed significantly to profits, with a gross profit of 19.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.4% [20]. 2. Q4 Performance Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, with major profit-increasing factors including gross profit and fair value changes [4][33]. - The company proposed a dividend of 0.217 yuan per share, totaling 3.723 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of 30.02% [4]. 3. Future Outlook - The company’s integrated layout provides significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. - The report anticipates net profits of 15.46 billion yuan, 17.68 billion yuan, and 19.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [6][7]. 4. Financial Health - The company has optimized its balance sheet, reducing short-term borrowings from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year [5][52].