CMES(601872) 国泰君安·2025-03-31 11:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (601872) with a target price of 9.71 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [1][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the dry bulk and container shipping sectors is expected to increase significantly in 2024, offsetting the pressure on oil transportation. The overall profitability is projected to continue growing, with a focus on the timing for contrarian investments [2][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.1 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. The multi-segment layout continues to demonstrate its advantages [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue: - 2023A: 25,881 million CNY - 2024A: 25,799 million CNY (down 0.3%) - 2025E: 30,296 million CNY (up 17.4%) [4] - Net Profit (attributable to parent): - 2023A: 4,837 million CNY - 2024A: 5,107 million CNY (up 5.6%) - 2025E: 5,623 million CNY (up 10.1%) [4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.59 CNY - 2024A: 0.63 CNY - 2025E: 0.69 CNY [4] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 13.1% - 2024A: 12.8% - 2025E: 13.0% [4] Market Data - Current Price: 6.38 CNY - Market Capitalization: 51,957 million CNY - 52-week Price Range: 6.19 - 9.83 CNY [5] Segment Performance - Oil Transportation: - Net profit expected to decline by 15% due to geopolitical pressures and increased production from Iran, with average TCE rates remaining stable [11]. - Dry Bulk: - Net profit projected to increase by 72%, with overall supply and demand remaining favorable despite fluctuations [11]. - Container Shipping: - Net profit expected to rise by 51%, driven by capacity expansion and the pursuit of high-value routes [11]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that the oil transportation supply-demand dynamics may improve, with potential upside from falling oil prices and inventory replenishment opportunities. The company is also focusing on shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% in 2025 [11].