Sungrow Power Supply(300274) 中信建投·2025-03-31 12:41Investment Rating - The report upgrades the company's rating to "Buy" based on its strong growth prospects and attractive valuation, with a projected PE of 12 times for 2025 [10]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the global inverter and energy storage market, with significant brand and technological advantages, and a strong overseas market presence. The core concern affecting the company's stock price is the sustainability of energy storage unit profitability, which has led to a long-term suppression of valuation and expectations. However, global energy storage demand is expected to continue to grow, and the company's energy storage gross margin is anticipated to recover to normal levels in the second half of this year, remaining above market expectations [1][3][10]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The company's stock price has experienced three phases since its listing. From 2011 to 2018, the main business was in inverters and EPC for power plants, heavily reliant on domestic photovoltaic subsidy policies. From 2019 to 2021, the company rapidly expanded its overseas inverter market share due to IGBT shortages and the pandemic, leading to significant stock price increases. Since 2022, the energy storage business has emerged as a second growth curve, with its output and profitability exceeding expectations, driving the stock price to outperform the photovoltaic index [2][19][20]. Current Situation - The energy storage business has become the core contradiction affecting the company's ROE and stock price. The inverter business has stabilized, with steady gross margins, while energy storage profits have significantly increased in recent years. The gross margin for energy storage is expected to improve due to the decline in lithium carbonate prices, but profitability per watt is projected to decline as the impact of lithium price decreases weakens [3][44]. Future Outlook - The company has sufficient orders on hand, with demand expected to grow rapidly in regions outside of the US and China, including Europe, the Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asia. The energy storage business is projected to ship 25-30 GWh in 2024, with global energy storage demand growth expected to reach 40-50% by 2025. The inverter business is expected to grow at around 10% annually, while the hydrogen energy business is anticipated to become a third growth curve [10][9][10]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 813.81 billion, 981.61 billion, and 1,108.91 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 108.9 billion, 127.07 billion, and 140.19 billion yuan, corresponding to PE valuations of 13.69, 11.73, and 10.64 times [10].