HTSC(601688) 天风证券·2025-04-01 07:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huatai Securities is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The overall performance of Huatai Securities is in line with expectations, with brokerage and credit businesses being the main drivers of growth [1] - The wealth management business is expected to benefit from the recovery in market sentiment and increased trading volume, leading to a "dual-wheel drive" of wealth management and institutional services [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Huatai Securities achieved adjusted revenue of 94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, and a full-year revenue of 334 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 28 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, while the full-year net profit was 154 billion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year [1] - The return on equity (ROE) was 9.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Brokerage Business - The brokerage business saw significant improvement in Q4 2024, with revenue of 24.8 billion yuan, up 86.1% year-on-year, and full-year revenue of 64.5 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [2] - The average daily trading volume for stock funds in Q4 was 20,684 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.3% [2] Investment Banking - The investment banking business reported revenue of 7.4 billion yuan in Q4, down 0.8% year-on-year, and 21.0 billion yuan for the full year, down 31.0% year-on-year [2] - The decline in revenue was attributed to stricter regulatory policies and a significant drop in underwriting scale for IPOs and refinancing [2] Asset Management - Asset management revenue for Q4 was 11.1 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year, while the full-year revenue was 41.5 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year [3] - The decline in revenue was mainly due to reduced fees in public funds, despite a significant increase in non-monetary public fund management scale [3] Credit Business - The credit business experienced substantial growth, with Q4 revenue of 14.0 billion yuan, up 1355.4% year-on-year, and full-year revenue of 27.1 billion yuan, up 184.0% year-on-year [4] - The increase was driven by active capital market trading and a rise in margin financing balances [4] Self-operated Business - The self-operated business reported a revenue of 83.0 billion yuan for the full year, down 28.9% year-on-year after excluding the sale of AssetMark [4] - The financial asset scale for self-operated business decreased by 25.5% year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 158 billion yuan and 179 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 3.1% and 12.9% [5]