HTSC(601688) 天风证券·2025-04-01 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7][20]. Core Views - The overall performance of the company is in line with expectations, with brokerage and credit businesses being the main drivers of growth [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in capital market sentiment, leading to a dual-driven growth in wealth management and institutional services [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company achieved adjusted revenue of 94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, and a full-year revenue of 334 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 28 billion yuan, down 10.6%, while the full-year net profit was 154 billion yuan, up 20.4% [1]. Brokerage Business - The brokerage business saw significant improvement in Q4 2024, with revenues of 24.8 billion yuan for the quarter and 64.5 billion yuan for the year, reflecting year-on-year increases of 86.1% and 8.2%, respectively. The average daily trading volume for stock funds in Q4 was 20,684 billion yuan, up 119.3% year-on-year [2]. Investment Banking - The investment banking segment reported revenues of 7.4 billion yuan in Q4 and 21.0 billion yuan for the year, with declines of 0.8% and 31.0% year-on-year, respectively. The decline is attributed to stricter regulatory policies affecting the scale of securities underwriting [2]. Asset Management - Asset management revenues for Q4 were 11.1 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.5%, while the full-year revenue was 41.5 billion yuan, down 2.6%. The decline is primarily due to reduced fees in public offerings, despite significant growth in non-monetary public fund management scale [3]. Credit Business - The credit business experienced substantial growth, with Q4 revenues of 14.0 billion yuan and full-year revenues of 27.1 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 1355.4% and 184.0% year-on-year, respectively. This growth is supported by increased trading activity in the capital market and a rise in margin financing balances [4]. Self-operated Business - The self-operated business reported a decline in revenue, with a full-year income of 83.0 billion yuan, down 28.9% after excluding the sale of AssetMark. The financial asset scale for self-operated business decreased by 25.5% year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 158 billion yuan and 179 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 3.1% and 12.9% [5].