GCL TECH(03800) 华泰证券·2025-04-01 10:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.30 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 15.098 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 55.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 4.75 billion, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, driven by cost reduction in granular silicon production and an increase in market share [2][3]. - The company is leveraging its raw material and technology advantages to develop new growth areas in renewable energy, electronic information, and new chemical materials [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a revenue of RMB 15.098 billion and a net loss of RMB 4.75 billion [1][5]. - The granular silicon production cash cost was reported at RMB 28.17 per kg, with a unit loss estimated at RMB 11-12 per kg [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 29.87% in 2025, reaching RMB 19.607 billion, and a return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 1.117 billion [5][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a leading position in granular silicon production, with a market share of 19.1% in Q4 2024, expected to rise to 25.7% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company is the only domestic player with a systematic grasp of large-scale electronic-grade polysilicon preparation technology, achieving over 50% market share in this segment [3]. - The company is also expanding into new materials, including silicon-carbon anodes and perovskite solar cells, with significant efficiency improvements expected [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 11.17 billion, RMB 29.19 billion, and RMB 43.3 billion, respectively [4]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 30x for 2025, with a target price adjusted to HKD 1.30, reflecting its leadership in granular silicon and cost advantages [4][6].