Zhonggu Logistics(603565) 海通国际证券·2025-04-01 11:11Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics [2][5][14] Core Insights - The company reported FY24 results that exceeded market expectations, with revenue of RMB 11.26 billion, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.835 billion, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. The return on equity (ROE) reached 17.26% [3][12][13] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.79 per share for FY24, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 90.39% and a dividend yield of 8.3%, indicating strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [5][12][13] - The company is optimistic about domestic and foreign trade prices in 2025, having increased the proportion of its foreign trade business, which has improved revenue per TEU and overall profitability [4][13] Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, the company achieved a total transportation volume of 11.29 million TEUs, a decline of 23.9% year-on-year. Revenue from water transport and land transport was RMB 9.0 billion and RMB 2.24 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.0% and -3.7% [4][8] - The overall gross profit margin for FY24 was 15.15%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. Despite a decline in domestic freight rates, the company shifted capacity to the more favorable foreign trade sector, enhancing unit prices and gross margins [4][8] - The report forecasts net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 to be RMB 1.966 billion, RMB 2.147 billion, and RMB 2.342 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.94, RMB 1.02, and RMB 1.12 [5][14] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at RMB 12.17, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13x for FY25 [2][5][14] - The report highlights the company's strategy of selling ships purchased at lower prices during high market conditions, contributing to significant asset disposal gains [4][13]