中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 国产开源模型千帆竞发，阿里 Qwen-3、小米 MiMo、DeepSeek Prover 集中发布 A surge of domestic open-source models 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng wo[Table_Title] Research Report 30 Apr 2025 barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件： 2025 年 4 月 28 日，阿里正式发布了新一代 Qwen-3 系列大语言模型（LLMs），包括从百亿参数到数十亿参数多个 量级的模型版本。2025 年 4 月 30 日，小米正式发布并开源了其首个专为推理任务设计的大语言模型——Xiaomi MiMo；DeepSeek 团队在 Hugging Face 平台发布了其最新的大语言模型——DeepSeek-Prover-V2-671B 点评： 阿里 Qwen-3： Qwen-3 系列具 ...

脂肪醇（酸）增收，橡胶项目增强竞争力 嘉化能源(600273) 嘉化能源 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 本报告导读： 2024 年公司脂肪醇（酸）系列收入增长明显；2025 年各项业务稳定开展。公司推出 高性能合成橡胶项目，进一步提升公司盈利能力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 8,774 | 9,153 | 10,696 | 11,024 | 11,635 | | (+/-)% | -23.7% | 4.3% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 5.5% | | 净利润（归母） | 1,180 | 1,008 | 1,082 | 1,184 | 1,282 | | (+/-)% | -26.2% | -14.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.85 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.92 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 30 Apr 2025 全球工业与能源 Global Industrials & Energy 中国暂停波音交付：影响有限与再分配对冲分析 China Halts Boeing Deliveries: Limited Impact and Reallocation Hedge Analysis 杨斌 Bin Yang bin.yang@htisec.com 影响量化评估。根据市场数据及历史趋势，中国市场在波音年度飞机交付量中的贡献占比已从 2010-2019 年期间的平均 24%显著回落。当前时点，中国市场占波音 2025 年剩余计划交付量的约 6%，包含未确认订 单则最高可达 11%。展望至 2030 年的长期交付计划，中国市场的占比进一步降至约 4%。基于 Cirim 数 据，2025 年波音向中国确认的计划交付量为 29 架（主要为 737 MAX），占其 2025 年全球总交付计划的比 例较低。我们初步估算，此次暂停交付涉及的 2025 年计划交付飞机（共 29 架）可能影响的收入规模约为 35.3 亿美元。该金额占波音公司年度总收 ...

2024 年公司净利润实现稳定增长 蓝晓科技(300487) ——蓝晓科技 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度点评 本报告导读： 2024 年公司营业收入及归母净利润同比均实现稳定增长，得益于材料销售收入的持 续稳定增长，弥补了提锂项目收入下滑。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 2,489 | 2,554 | 3,108 | 3,765 | 4,424 | | (+/-)% | 29.6% | 2.6% | 21.7% | 21.1% | 17.5% | | 净利润（归母） | 717 | 787 | 1,028 | 1,261 | 1,495 | | (+/-)% | 33.4% | 9.8% | 30.5% | 22.7% | 18.5% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.41 | 1.55 | 2.02 | 2.48 | 2.94 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 20.9% | 20.1% ...

研究报告 Research Report 30 Apr 2025 怡合达 Yiheda Automation (301029 CH) 一季度业绩回暖，毛利率显著改善 Earnings Started to Rise in 1Q25, Gross Margin Recovered [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb22.00 目标价 Rmb27.90 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb13.95bn / US$1.91bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$32.67mn 发行股票数目 634.20mn 自由流通股 (%) 36% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb31.80-Rmb16.68 注：现价 Rmb22.00 为 2025 年 04 月 29 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the companies discussed, but it highlights the competitive landscape and market positions of the firms involved [2][3]. Core Insights - Ant Group's acquisition of a 50.55% stake in Yaocai Securities has led to an 82% surge in Yaocai's stock price, while Futu Holdings experienced a 6.4% decline followed by a 2.1% recovery [1]. - Futu has over 50% market share in the Hong Kong retail securities brokerage business, attributed to its diverse product offerings, zero-commission model, and strong user experience [2][3]. - The competitive landscape in the Hong Kong securities market is described as saturated, with Futu's established market position making it difficult for new entrants like Yaocai to gain significant market share despite potential enhancements from Ant Group's involvement [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Hong Kong securities market is characterized by intense competition among three main types of service providers: Chinese online brokers, international online brokers, and traditional banks and brokers [2]. - As of the end of 2024, Futu's market penetration in Hong Kong exceeded 50%, supported by its early entry and licensing advantages [2]. Competitive Analysis - Futu offers commission-free trading for Hong Kong stocks, while Yaocai charges a fee of 0.0668% on transaction amounts, with a minimum charge of 50 HKD or 6.5 USD [2][3]. - Futu's product range is broader, including services for various international markets and asset classes, while Yaocai's offerings are more limited [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the competitive dynamics in the Hong Kong market are unlikely to change significantly in the short term due to Futu's established advantages [3]. - Although Ant Group's acquisition may enhance Yaocai's service offerings, the report indicates that gaining market share will remain a challenge for Yaocai in the face of Futu's strong position [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HK$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.5% from the current price of HK$15.00 [2][12]. Core Insights - Li Ning's 1Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with a focus on product category expansion in 2025, which is designated as an investment year for the company [1][6]. - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin, as it invests heavily in brand partnerships and product development around the upcoming Olympic Games [6][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the running category, with over 20% growth, while basketball and sports lifestyle categories are experiencing declines [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1Q25, Li Ning's revenue growth was low single-digit, with direct channel sales declining due to a reduction in the number of directly managed stores [3][10]. - The company achieved a sell-through rate of approximately 5X in inventory to sales ratio, with improvements in discount rates across various channels [3][10]. Product Development - Li Ning's retail sales mix for 2024 shows running (28%), fitness (15%), basketball (21%), and casual (35%) categories, with respective growth rates of 25%, 6%, -21%, and -6% [4][11]. - New product launches are planned across all categories for 2025, including specialized running shoes and basketball models, with significant sell-out rates reported for certain lines [4][11][12]. Market Strategy - The company has secured partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and plans to enhance its brand presence through sponsorships and collaborations with sports stars [6][12]. - Li Ning's channel adjustments are nearing completion, positioning the company for a potential brand upcycle post-2025 [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.62, down from a previous target of RMB 23.76 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face revenue of RMB 5.16 billion in 2024, a decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit of RMB 610 million, down 41.3%, primarily due to pressure on raw material prices and an asset impairment of RMB 218 million [2][11]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected at RMB 1.49 billion, an increase of 0.98%, with a net profit of RMB 250 million, up 5.68%, indicating improved profitability with a gross profit margin of 37.42% [2][11]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 0.98 and RMB 1.10, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.21 [2][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 5.16 billion, reflecting a 6.6% decline, while net profit is anticipated to be RMB 610 million, a 41.3% decrease due to raw material price pressures and asset impairments [2][11]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to rise to RMB 1.49 billion, a 0.98% increase, with net profit expected to reach RMB 250 million, marking a 5.68% growth [2][11]. Raw Material and CDMO Business - The raw material and intermediate prices are under short-term pressure, but there is optimism for upward flexibility in the future [2][11]. - The CDMO business is expanding, with 2024 revenue expected to be RMB 3.87 billion, a decrease of 5.1%, and a significant focus on emerging fields [3][11]. Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue increase to RMB 5.68 billion in 2025, followed by RMB 6.14 billion in 2026, and RMB 6.59 billion in 2027 [4][11]. - The net profit is expected to recover to RMB 880 million in 2025, RMB 985 million in 2026, and RMB 1.08 billion in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company continues to experience rapid growth, with a significant increase in electrophysiology surgeries and potential growth in peripheral products due to centralized procurement [1][5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 504.27 CNY, reflecting a 40% upside from the current price of 433.06 CNY [1][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 2,066 million CNY, representing a 25.2% increase, and a net profit of 673 million CNY, up 26.1% [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show revenue of 564 million CNY, a 23.93% increase, and a net profit of 183 million CNY, up 30.69% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 9.34 CNY for 2025 and 15.89 CNY for 2027 [5]. Business Performance - The company has seen a 50% increase in three-dimensional electrophysiology surgeries, with over 15,000 procedures completed in 2024 [5]. - The revenue from electrophysiology products is expected to reach 440 million CNY, a 19.73% increase [5]. - The coronary intervention revenue is projected at 1,054 million CNY, reflecting a 33.30% growth [5]. Market Position - The company has become the first globally to offer a comprehensive solution for three-dimensional pulsed ablation, including various approved products [5]. - International business has shown strong growth, with overseas revenue reaching 280 million CNY, a 19.75% increase, and a 45.88% growth in self-owned brands [5].