2025 年 04 月 30 日 李宁 (02331) ——一季度销售稳健复苏，折扣改善、库存健康 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 投资要点： | | | 上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位：人民币 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 276 | 287 | 288 | 301 | 312 | | 同比增长率（%） | 7% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 4% | | 归母净利润（亿元） | 31.9 | 30.1 | 24.8 | 26.4 | 27.8 | | 同比增长率（%） | -22% | -5% | -18% | 7% | 5% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.23 | 1.17 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 1.08 | | 毛利率（%） | 48.4% | 49.4% | 49.4% | 49.6% | 49.6% | | 市盈率 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | | 注："每股收益" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company's retail revenue for Q1 2025 showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels also recording low single-digit growth and e-commerce channels achieving a growth rate in the low range of 10%-20% [2][3] - The company is undergoing channel adjustments, with a net decrease of 29 stores by the end of Q1 2025, including a reduction of 6 direct-operated stores and 23 wholesale stores [3] - The company expects to maintain steady progress, with projected annual revenue for 2025 remaining flat and a net profit margin in the high single digits [4] - The company has become a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee (COC) for 2025-2028, which is anticipated to enhance brand strength and contribute to future marketing efforts [4] Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company reported a low single-digit growth in retail revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - Offline direct sales experienced a low single-digit decline due to channel structure optimization [3] - E-commerce channels showed a growth rate in the low range of 10%-20%, with platforms like Douyin and JD.com leading the online growth [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain steady growth and expects the COC partnership to contribute positively to revenue [4] - The projected revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29,031 million RMB, with a growth rate of 1.24% [10] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain stable operations, with net profits projected at 28.57 billion RMB for 2025, 31.33 billion RMB for 2026, and 32.89 billion RMB for 2027 [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 11 for 2026, and 10 for 2027 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning Company has made significant strides in sustainable development, integrating ESG principles into its corporate strategy and achieving notable recognition in the industry for its efforts in environmental, social, and governance practices [1][20]. Group 1: ESG Report and Recognition - In April 2025, Li Ning Company released its 2024 ESG report, outlining its sustainable development strategies and practices across various domains, including environmental products, green operations, and social responsibility [1]. - The company achieved a MSCI ESG rating upgrade to BBB and was ranked 15th in the "Kantar BrandZ Sustainable Brands Top 50," leading its industry peers [1]. Group 2: Environmental Product Innovations - In 2024, Li Ning launched China's first fully biodegradable professional sports shoes and established a product standard for biodegradable performance in footwear [3]. - The company reported a carbon reduction of over 30,000 tons through the application of eco-friendly technologies in its shoe production [3]. Group 3: Sustainable Practices in Apparel - Li Ning utilized 2,024 tons of recycled polyester yarn in 2024, resulting in a carbon reduction of 2,283 tons, and repurposed over 150 million plastic bottles in its sportswear [5]. - Approximately 80% of shoe boxes were FSC certified, leading to significant savings in ink, water, and electricity, while reducing carbon emissions by about 118 tons [5]. Group 4: Green Operations and Energy Efficiency - The company implemented smart technology upgrades in its operations, achieving energy savings of over 430,000 kWh in its Shenzhen center alone [6][8]. - Li Ning's headquarters and stores have adopted renewable energy solutions, with self-generated electricity accounting for about 25% of total consumption in its Beijing center [6]. Group 5: Responsible Supply Chain Management - Li Ning completed social responsibility audits for 140 suppliers and environmental audits for 60 suppliers, achieving a 100% pass rate for "excellent" or "good" ratings [9]. - The company established a chemical management framework to ensure zero harmful chemical emissions across its supply chain [9][10]. Group 6: Talent Development and Employer Branding - Li Ning has enhanced its talent development system, focusing on creating a fair and diverse workplace, and received recognition in multiple employer branding awards in 2024 [11][15]. - The company promotes employee well-being through various initiatives, including sports clubs and community events, fostering a strong corporate culture [11]. Group 7: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - In 2024, Li Ning launched the "2024 Bring Love Home" initiative, donating 2 million yuan worth of supplies to regions in need [16]. - The company supports youth sports development through partnerships and events, such as the "TOP24 Basketball Elite Competition," nurturing new talent in the industry [18].

Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 increased by 3.9% to RMB 28.68 billion compared to RMB 27.60 billion in 2023[14] - Gross profit rose by 6.0% to RMB 14.16 billion, with a gross margin of 49.4%, improving by 1 percentage point from the previous year[14] - Profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 3.01 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.5%[14] - Operating cash inflow reached RMB 5.27 billion, up from RMB 4.69 billion in 2023, indicating healthy cash flow management[14] - The overall operating profit for 2024 was RMB 3.68 billion, slightly up from RMB 3.56 billion in 2023[8] - The return on equity for equity holders was 11.9%, down from 13.1% in the previous year, indicating a need for strategic adjustments[8] - The net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 3,012,918 thousand, down 5.5% from RMB 3,186,910 thousand in the previous year[24] - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 116.98, a decline of 5.1% from RMB 123.21 in 2023[24] - The income tax expense for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 1,096,691,000, with an effective tax rate of 26.7%, compared to 25.1% in 2023[41] Asset and Liability Management - Total non-current assets decreased to RMB 15.18 billion from RMB 20.55 billion in 2023, while current assets increased to RMB 20.53 billion from RMB 13.65 billion[8] - The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 36.8% from 40.2% in the previous year, reflecting better financial stability[8] - The accumulated inventory provision as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 166,817,000, an increase from RMB 134,727,000 in 2023, indicating a rise in inventory value[43] - The accumulated expected credit loss provision as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 45,678,000, relatively stable compared to RMB 45,738,000 in 2023, with trade receivables provision increasing to RMB 41,658,000 from RMB 38,215,000[44] Revenue Streams and Sales Performance - E-commerce revenue grew by 10.3% due to deep channel development and cost control optimization, while distributor revenue increased by 2.6%[27] - Revenue from footwear reached RMB 14,300,341,000, accounting for 49.9% of total revenue, while apparel revenue decreased by 2.9% to RMB 12,050,245,000[28] - Direct sales accounted for 24.0% of total revenue, down from 25.0% in 2023, while e-commerce sales increased to 29.0% from 27.3%[29] - The overall sales cost for the year was RMB 14,519,540,000, with a gross margin of 49.4%, up from 48.4% in 2023, reflecting improved discount strategies in retail stores[32] Innovation and Product Development - The company focused on enhancing technology research and innovation to improve operational efficiency and consumer experience[13] - The company launched six innovative technologies and three new products, including the "绝影3" running shoes and "龙雀" racing shoes, enhancing its competitive edge in the sports market[17] - The introduction of the new midsole technology "超䨻" showcases the company's dual innovation capabilities in materials and processes, significantly improving product performance[67] - The company has established a strong lineup of six proprietary innovative technologies, enhancing its competitive edge in professional sports technology[66] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company plans to strengthen its "single brand, multiple categories, and multi-channels" strategy to enhance brand competitiveness and expand into international markets[18] - The company aims to strengthen its brand value through diversified global marketing activities, focusing on six core categories while expanding into emerging sports and niche categories[70] - The company has implemented a new retail business model, enhancing digital and omnichannel capabilities to efficiently convert private traffic and steadily improve sales performance[92] Corporate Governance and Management - The board of directors is committed to high standards of corporate governance, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements[101] - The board consists of seven members, including three executive directors and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring a balanced composition with diverse expertise[109] - The company has adopted a board diversity policy, considering various factors such as gender, age, and professional experience to achieve sustainable development[110] - The company has established a comprehensive risk management and internal control system based on the COSO framework, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and compliance[148] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Initiatives - The company achieved a MSCI ESG rating upgrade to BBB in 2024, reflecting steady progress in ESG initiatives[184] - The company is committed to green and low-carbon operations, aligning with the national "30-60" carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategy[184] - The group aims for sustainable development by integrating responsible practices across the entire value chain, including product design, procurement, production, marketing, and waste management[186] - The company has established an ESG management committee led by the executive director and co-CEO to oversee long-term ESG strategies and goals[180] Employee and Community Engagement - The company emphasizes equal employment and career development opportunities for all qualified employees[111] - The group emphasizes employee welfare by optimizing compensation structures and enhancing workplace safety and health programs[189] - The company actively participates in charitable activities to improve overall social welfare and promote sports culture[192] - The group will provide full social insurance and supplementary medical insurance benefits to employees as part of its commitment to SDG1 (No Poverty)[194]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the achievements and contributions of Li Ning, a leader in the transmission operation and maintenance center of State Grid Hebei Hengshui Power Supply Company, showcasing his dedication to innovation and training young professionals in the power industry [1][2][5]. Group 1: Professional Background and Achievements - Li Ning, born in June 1982, has transitioned from a retired soldier to a leading figure in transmission operation and maintenance over 21 years, earning numerous accolades including the National May Day Labor Medal and various technical expert titles [1][2]. - After retiring from the military in October 2004, Li Ning faced initial challenges due to a lack of professional skills but actively sought to improve by participating in tower operations and pursuing further education, ultimately becoming an expert in the field [2][4]. Group 2: Innovations and Contributions - Li Ning has developed and revised numerous operational guidelines and technical standards, contributing to 97 revised work instructions, 29 job specifications, and 306 technical standard documents [2]. - He pioneered five new operational methods, including the "split conductor clamp" technique, which have been integrated into the maintenance protocols of State Grid Hebei Power Company, marking significant advancements in transmission line maintenance technology [2][5]. Group 3: Training and Mentorship - As the head of an innovation studio established in 2016, Li Ning focuses on nurturing young talent by sharing his expertise and implementing a structured training approach that includes project-based learning and problem-solving [7][8]. - Under his mentorship, young professionals like Guo Lianju have rapidly advanced, achieving recognition as technical experts, while the innovation studio has produced 236 innovative results, with several receiving national patents and awards [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HK$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.5% from the current price of HK$15.00 [2][12]. Core Insights - Li Ning's 1Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with a focus on product category expansion in 2025, which is designated as an investment year for the company [1][6]. - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin, as it invests heavily in brand partnerships and product development around the upcoming Olympic Games [6][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the running category, with over 20% growth, while basketball and sports lifestyle categories are experiencing declines [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1Q25, Li Ning's revenue growth was low single-digit, with direct channel sales declining due to a reduction in the number of directly managed stores [3][10]. - The company achieved a sell-through rate of approximately 5X in inventory to sales ratio, with improvements in discount rates across various channels [3][10]. Product Development - Li Ning's retail sales mix for 2024 shows running (28%), fitness (15%), basketball (21%), and casual (35%) categories, with respective growth rates of 25%, 6%, -21%, and -6% [4][11]. - New product launches are planned across all categories for 2025, including specialized running shoes and basketball models, with significant sell-out rates reported for certain lines [4][11][12]. Market Strategy - The company has secured partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and plans to enhance its brand presence through sponsorships and collaborations with sports stars [6][12]. - Li Ning's channel adjustments are nearing completion, positioning the company for a potential brand upcycle post-2025 [7][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][13] Core Views - In the first quarter of 2025, Li Ning's retail sales recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with improvements in discount rates compared to the previous year [2][3] - The management maintains guidance for flat revenue growth and a high single-digit net profit margin for the year 2025 [10][12] - The company achieved steady revenue growth despite a challenging operating environment and continued contraction in offline channels, while maintaining good operational quality [3][13] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - As of March 31, 2025, Li Ning's retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels showing low single-digit growth and e-commerce virtual stores achieving a growth rate in the low double digits [2][3] - The total number of sales points in China was 6,088, a net decrease of 29 from the end of the previous year [2] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [3][14] - The target price is set between 17.9 and 19.2 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 17.2-18.5x [3][13] Inventory and Discount Rates - The inventory turnover ratio slightly increased to 5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [4][3] - Discounts in both online and offline channels improved, although the trend showed signs of weakening in April [4][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The report indicates that Li Ning's Q1 performance met expectations, with low discount sales improving and strong growth in running and e-commerce segments. The company focuses on professional sports, increasing resource allocation and expanding new products to cater to niche markets and emerging sectors [6][7][9] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For the fiscal year 2023, Li Ning reported a revenue of 27,598 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 28,742 million HKD, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The net profit for 2023 was 3,187 million HKD, showing a decline of 21.6% year-on-year. The estimated net profit for 2025 is 2,459 million HKD, indicating a further decline of 18.4% [10] - The gross margin for 2023 was 48.4%, with a projected gross margin of 49.8% for 2025. The net margin is expected to decrease from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.6% in 2025 [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 14.6, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4 [10] Operational Insights - In Q1 2025, Li Ning's total store count was 6,088, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores and open 30-40 wholesale stores throughout the year [8] - The report highlights that the running category saw over 20% growth, driven by sponsorship of events and strong performance of new running shoe products [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5][3] Core Views - Li Ning's adult revenue showed steady growth in Q1 2025, with e-commerce performance being particularly strong, while overall performance met expectations [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its children's clothing product structure and enhancing brand promotion, which is expected to drive steady growth in the children's clothing segment [2] - The company is managing inventory effectively, with an estimated inventory-to-sales ratio of around 5, indicating a healthy and controllable level [2] - For 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 17.5% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.86 billion, 26.66 billion, and 28.81 billion respectively, with a PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [3] - Financial indicators for 2025 include: - Revenue: 28,919 million - Net profit: 2,486 million, a decline of 17.5% year-on-year - EPS: 0.96 - ROE: 9.1% [4][11] - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 0.8% for 2025, 6.5% for 2026, and 5.9% for 2027 [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning announced that its retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year in the first quarter across all platforms [1] Group 1 - The company reported a low single-digit growth in retail sales for the first quarter [1]