2025 年 3 月 31 日 公司研究 24 年表现平稳，25 年将加大投入、促品牌力向上 ——李宁（2331.HK）2024 年业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：17.16 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 25.85 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 443.55 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 12.56/24.60 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 109.8% | 股价相对走势 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 李宁 恒生指数 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 李宁（02331） 证券研究报告 深练内功巩固成效 其中 2024H2 营收 143 亿元，同比+5.5%，归母净利 11 亿，同比-0.4%。全 年派息（含中期）58.48 分人民币/股，派息比率为 50%。 电商表现优秀，新品放量 1）分品牌，24 年末门店合计 7585 家，较年初减少 83 家，其中李宁主品 牌减少 123 家至 6117 家，李宁 Young 增加 40 家至 1468 家。门店减少主 要受消费影响，儿童门店数量稳步提升。 李宁 YOUNG 一方面加强布局儿童专业产品矩阵，特别是在篮球运动、中 国文化传承款、特色裤装以及器配品类等明星单品上表现理想；另一方面 精心策划一系列线下青少年活动及跨界合作，聚焦篮球、足球、跑步、户 外等多个热门运动领域，展现品牌的多元化魅力。 2）分渠道，24 年批发营收 130 亿元，同比+3%；直营营收 69 亿，同比略 降 0.3%；电商营收 83 亿元，同比+10%。 截至 24Q4 流水：线下同增中单位数，其中直营低单位数下降，批发同增 中单位，电商同增 10%-20%中段。 整体消费承压，公司对零售渠道进行调整，直营门 ...

24 年业绩符合预期，25 年起加大投入追求 中长期高质量发展 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩公告，我们调整 24-26 年盈利预测，预计 24-26 年 EPS 分别为 1.17、0.99 和 1.15 元（原 1.2、1.37 和 1.54 元），参考可比公司，给予 2025 年 20 倍的 PE 估 值，目标价为 21.19 港币（1 人民币=1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：运动服饰消费低于预期、终端去库存进度和新产品推广不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25,803 | 27,598 | 28,676 | 28,945 | 31,317 | | 同比增长 (%) | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,415 | 4,256 | 4,110 | 3,462 | 4,033 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -21 ...

31 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) Conservative guidance but quite expected FY24 results were inline with market expectation while 4Q24 operating numbers were slightly better than expected. Going forward, on one hand, the Company is outlining conservative FY25E guidance and the plan to invest more for the future, and on the other hand, the numbers in 1Q25E are already trending better. Therefore, we tend to think the worst should have already gon ...

李宁还在继续维稳。 3月28日，李宁公司发布2024年财报，全年营收286.76亿元，同比增长3.9%；净利润30.13亿元，同比下跌5.46%；集团整体毛利率49.4%，较去年提升1个百 分点。 业内普遍认为，李宁全年的业绩符合预期。 摩根士丹利称，李宁净利润下滑是因为"投资物业"减值的拖累。市场会正面解读业绩结果，这意味着，该公司的盈利可能优于部分投资者的预期。 财报发布后，李宁股价走高，盘中涨超6%创周内最高，当日报收17.16港元/股。 | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | 變動 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | (%) | | 收益表項目 | | | | | (除特別註明外,所有金額均以千元人民幣列示) | | | | | 收入 | 28.675.643 | 27.598.491 | 3.9 | | 毛利 | 14,156,103 | 13.352.055 | 6.0 | | 經營利 糧 | 3,678,206 | 3.559.087 | 3.3 | | 息稅前利潤加折舊及攤鎖(EBITDA)(附註1) | 6,379,193 | 6. ...

Core Viewpoint - 2024 is a significant year for sports, with Li Ning demonstrating strong financial performance and brand improvement, positioning itself for future growth as a new sponsor for the Chinese Olympic Committee [1][8]. Financial Performance - Li Ning achieved revenue of 28.676 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [2]. - The net profit reached 3.013 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 10.5% [2]. - Gross profit was 14.156 billion RMB, up 6.0% from the previous year, with an overall gross margin of 49.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2]. Operational Highlights - Li Ning's operating cash flow was 5.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, indicating strong risk resilience and efficient supply chain management [3]. - The inventory turnover days were 64 days, with a cash cycle of 35 days, reflecting healthy inventory management [3]. - R&D expenditure increased by 9.4%, outpacing revenue growth, highlighting a commitment to innovation and product competitiveness [3]. Strategic Focus - Li Ning is deepening its focus on professional fields and product categories, enhancing brand value and long-term competitiveness [5]. - The company is concentrating on six core categories: basketball, running, fitness, badminton, table tennis, and sports lifestyle, with a comprehensive product layout [6]. - In basketball, Li Ning launched several successful models, including the "伽马" series, which topped annual basketball shoe rankings [6]. Brand and Market Positioning - Li Ning became the official strategic partner of the Chinese Men's Professional Basketball League in 2024, enhancing its brand recognition [7]. - The company has achieved significant success in running, with retail sales increasing by 25% year-on-year, and has sold over 10.6 million running shoes [6][7]. - The upcoming Olympic cycle starting in 2025 is expected to further strengthen Li Ning's brand image and market position [8]. Conclusion - Li Ning's solid performance reflects a strategic recalibration, focusing on operational quality, technological depth, and brand potential, setting the stage for a new growth cycle [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][27]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong operational capabilities despite challenging market conditions, with a steady increase in dividend payout ratio to approximately 50% for the year [7]. - Revenue for 2024 reached 28.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, outperforming expectations, primarily due to a strong recovery in Q4 sales [7]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 3.01 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but adjusted for a one-time impairment loss, the profit would have shown a 5% increase [7]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing brand value and product innovation, particularly in the running segment, which saw a 25% increase in sales [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: 27.6 billion RMB - 2024: 28.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 28.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 30.1 billion RMB - 2027E: 31.2 billion RMB - The expected growth rates for these years are 7%, 4%, 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 2.48 billion RMB, with a projected PE ratio of 17 [6][17]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for 2025, with a slight increase in operating profit margin to 12.8% [7]. Sales Performance - The company’s footwear segment generated 14.3 billion RMB in revenue, a 7% increase, while apparel revenue decreased by 2.9% to 12.05 billion RMB [7]. - E-commerce sales grew by 10.3% to 8.3 billion RMB, while direct sales saw a slight decline of 0.3% [7]. - The company’s total store count at the end of 2024 was 7,585, with a net decrease of 83 stores, indicating a strategic focus on optimizing store performance [7]. Market Comparison - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 44.36 billion HKD, with a target market value of 48.3 billion HKD for 2025, suggesting a potential upside of 9% from current levels [7][17]. - Compared to peers, the company’s projected PE for 2025 is 18, which is competitive within the industry [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown operational efficiency improvements and is actively investing in cultivating competitive advantages. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 28.676 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.4%, with a slight increase of 1.0 percentage points. The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 3.013 billion, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but EBITDA is expected to improve by 6% [2][5] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 28.676 billion (+3.9%) - 2025: 28.870 billion (+0.68%) - 2026: 30.315 billion (+5.0%) - 2027: 31.747 billion (+4.72%) [2][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 3.013 billion (-5.46%) - 2025: 2.616 billion (-13.18%) - 2026: 2.923 billion (+11.75%) - 2027: 3.217 billion (+10.04%) [2][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.17 - 2025: 1.01 - 2026: 1.13 - 2027: 1.24 [2][6] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024: 13.6 - 2025: 15.6 - 2026: 14.0 - 2027: 12.7 [2][6] Operational Insights - The company has reported a stable revenue performance with a focus on enhancing operational quality. The e-commerce channel has shown a growth rate of 10.3% year-on-year, while the direct sales channel has seen a slight decline of 0.4%. The average store size has increased, and the average monthly sales per store have reached 300,000 RMB [5][6] - Cash flow remains strong, with operating cash flow of 5.268 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The inventory level is healthy, with a turnover period of 4 months [5][6] Market Positioning - The company is expected to enhance its brand presence and product reputation through increased investment in professional research and development, sponsorship of various sports events, and targeting different consumer segments. The revenue growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 289 billion, 303 billion, and 317 billion respectively, with a focus on maintaining its position as a leading sports brand in China [5][6]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月30日 李宁（02331.HK） 优于大市 全年收入增长 4%，品类表现分化 2024 年业绩符合预期，毛利率同比改善。2024 公司收入同比增长 3.9%至 286.8 亿元，归母净利润同比下滑 5.5%至 30.1 亿元，基本符合预期。毛利 率同比提升 1 个百分点至 49.4%，主要由电商和直营渠道折扣回升带动，销 售费用率同比-0.8 个百分点至 32.1%，主要由于增加营销开支占比，管理费 用率和财务费用率也小幅增加。经营利润率同比接近持平，在其他收入及利 息减少 6.48 亿影响下，净利率同比-1 个百分点至 10.5%。经营性现金流净 流入 52.7 亿元，全年派息率 50%，净现金同比增加 2 亿元至 182 亿元。2024 下半年公司收入同比增长 5.5%，归母净利润同比增长-0.4%至 10.6 亿元，其 中经营利润率同比提升 0.9 个百分点，归母净利润同比下降 0.4 个百分点。 跑步品类引领增长，专业跑鞋销量破千万双。分品类流水增速，跑步/篮球/ 综训/运动时尚分别为 25%/-21%/6%/-6%，其中跑鞋大单品超轻/赤兔/飞电系 列销量破 106 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 剔除减值影响业绩符合预期，派息率新高 [Table_Title2] 李宁(2331.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2331 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港 | 24.05/13.02 | | | | 元)： | | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 443.55 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 17.16 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 443.55 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,584.80 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2024年公司实现收入/归母净利/EBITDA/经营现金流为286.76/30.13/63.79/52.68亿元、同比增长3.9%/- 5.5%/3.6%/12.4%。我们分析，剔除投资性房地产减值3.3亿影响后的归母净利为33.43亿元，符合市场预期； 剔除投资性其他收入、权益法入账 ...