CHINA TELECOM(601728) 华创证券·2025-04-01 11:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Telecom (601728) with a target price of 8.60 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.85 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company continues to experience growth in operating performance, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 72% for 2024. The cash dividend for 2024 is expected to be 0.2598 CNY per share, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Growth: In 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 523.57 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 33.01 billion CNY, with an 8.4% increase compared to the previous year [3][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 0.36 CNY, with projections of 0.38 CNY for 2025, 0.41 CNY for 2026, and 0.44 CNY for 2027 [3][8]. - Valuation Ratios: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22 in 2024 to 18 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at around 1.5 [3][8]. Business Segment Performance - Telecom Services: The mobile communication service revenue is expected to reach 202.5 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 3.5%. The number of mobile users is projected to be 425 million, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of 45.6 CNY [8]. - Digital Transformation: The revenue from industrial digitalization is anticipated to grow by 5.5% to 146.6 billion CNY, accounting for 30.4% of service revenue [8]. Capital Expenditure and Investment Strategy - The total capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 93.5 billion CNY, representing approximately 17.9% of revenue. The company plans to optimize its capital expenditure direction, with a focus on digitalization investments [8]. Future Projections - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 35.07 billion CNY in 2025, 37.77 billion CNY in 2026, and 40.16 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a steady growth trajectory [8].