SF Holding(002352) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-01 14:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for SF Holding [2][6] Core Insights - SF Holding reported a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [6] - The express logistics business remains stable, with revenue from the core express delivery segment reaching 122.21 billion yuan, a growth of 5.8% year-on-year, driven by new delivery demand [6] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.39 percentage points to 3.58% in 2024 [6] - Capital expenditure for 2024 was 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, indicating that the peak of capital expenditure has passed [6] - The report slightly raises profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 11.82 billion yuan, 13.59 billion yuan, and 15.31 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 309.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [5] - Net profit for 2025 is projected at 11.82 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16.2% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.37 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 13.9% for 2025 [5] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.7% in 2025 [5]