Air China(601111) 民生证券·2025-04-02 07:33Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) with a target price of 7.15 CNY, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 166.7 billion CNY for 2024, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year, and a reduced net loss of 240 million CNY compared to a loss of 1.05 billion CNY in 2023 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the economy and a price-first strategy, despite facing challenges such as currency depreciation and a significant drop in international seat revenue [2][4]. - The company plans to increase its fleet size by a net of 4.3% over the next three years, maintaining its capacity introduction plan [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 166.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.1%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 240 million CNY, a significant improvement from the previous year's loss of 1.05 billion CNY [1][5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 38.5 billion CNY, up 8.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.6 billion CNY [1]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - The overall seat revenue decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, with international seat revenue dropping by 13% and domestic seat revenue down by 1.2% [2]. - The unit fuel cost decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, but this was offset by a foreign exchange loss of 760 million CNY [2]. Fleet and Capacity - The company plans to add 30 aircraft in 2025, 30 in 2026, and 55 in 2027, primarily focusing on A320 models [3]. - The company is phasing out older aircraft models, such as A320ceo and B737-800, to replace them with newer models [3]. Financial Structure and Outlook - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 88.2%, and interest expenses fell by approximately 500 million CNY year-on-year [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.3 billion CNY, 6.0 billion CNY, and 8.2 billion CNY, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5][4].