中国国贸：经营表现平稳，维持高分红比例-20250402

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operational performance with a high dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 11 CNY per 10 shares, which accounts for 88% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 39.12 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.62 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 0.25% [2][6] - The company’s property leasing and management segment generated revenue of 33.9 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 66.0%, while the hotel operations segment saw a revenue decline of 7.6% to 5.3 billion CNY [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024A: Revenue of 39.12 billion CNY, net profit of 12.63 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 40.63 billion CNY, net profit of 12.96 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 41.80 billion CNY, net profit of 13.27 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 42.63 billion CNY, net profit of 13.54 billion CNY [2][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.25 CNY in 2024 to 1.34 CNY in 2027 [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.08% in 2024 to 11.98% in 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - Property Leasing and Management: - Revenue growth forecasted at 4% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 [7] - Average rental rates for office space increased by 0.2% to 639 CNY per square meter per month [6] - Hotel Operations: - Revenue expected to recover with a growth of 3% in 2025 and 2% in subsequent years [7][8] Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has effectively controlled costs, with total expense ratios decreasing from 6.3% to 5.8% [6] - The asset-liability ratio has shown a downward trend, decreasing to 21.6% by year-end 2024 [6][10] - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with operating cash flow net amounting to 18.0 billion CNY in 2024 [6][10]