光伏行业跟踪报告：光伏行业：抢装带动产业链价格小幅回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the photovoltaic industry, indicating it is expected to outperform the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a slight price recovery across its supply chain due to a surge in demand driven by installation rushes. As of March 26, prices for silicon materials and various components have shown modest increases [1][9]. - New policies have been implemented to stimulate installations, leading to increased production in March. The policies include measures that allow older projects to continue benefiting from existing pricing structures, while new projects will enter a market-based pricing system [3][4]. - Despite the current positive trends, there are concerns about potential declines in investment willingness for distributed projects in the second half of the year due to uncertainties in electricity pricing and expectations of lower average grid prices [4]. Summary by Sections Price Performance - As of March 26, prices for silicon materials have increased slightly, with dense silicon block prices at 40 CNY/kg (up 2.6%) and granular silicon block prices at 38 CNY/kg (up 2.7%). Prices for silicon wafers and battery cells have also seen increases, with M10N and G12N specifications priced at 1.20 CNY/piece and 1.55 CNY/piece, respectively [1][9]. Export Data - In January 2025, China exported approximately 22.26 GW of photovoltaic modules, a 2% increase from January 2024. However, February saw a decline of 23% year-on-year, with total exports for January and February at 38.52 GW, down 11% from the previous year [2][18]. Policy Developments - New policies introduced in January and February have driven the installation rush, with significant production increases expected in March across various segments of the supply chain. The policies aim to facilitate a smooth transition for existing projects while promoting new installations [3][4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that while the current price increases may lead to profit recovery across the supply chain, the overall industry remains in a state of excess capacity. The report highlights potential beneficiaries among leading material suppliers as the industry undergoes supply-side adjustments [4].