东兴证券晨报-2025-04-02

Macro Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of marginal improvement in Q1, with manufacturing PMI rebounding and slight recovery in commodity housing sales and social financing [1][2] - The CPI fell again in February, and PPI remains in negative territory, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [1] - The government has introduced a consumption stimulus plan aimed at boosting domestic demand, particularly in sectors benefiting from policy support [1][2] Market Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on low-valuation blue-chip stocks as the market enters a critical observation period, with performance expectations rising as earnings reports are released [2][6] - The market is currently experiencing a shift in risk appetite, with a preference for certainty over speculative investments, particularly in the context of upcoming U.S. tariff implementations [2][6] Stock Market Performance - As of April 2, 2025, major indices showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,350.13, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,513.12, up 0.09% [3] New Stock Listings - New stocks listed this week include Xinkai Technology and Taihe Co., both in the basic chemical industry, priced at 12.80 and 10.27 CNY per share respectively [4][5] Bond Market Insights - The bond market has seen a downward trend in interest rates, with the ten-year government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points [7] - The central bank's liquidity injections and the performance of the equity market are influencing bond market trends, with expectations of a stable interest rate environment [7] Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable asset growth under positive fiscal policies, with manageable net interest margin pressures [8][9] - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong dividend yields and those benefiting from improved economic expectations [8][9] Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market is under pressure, with top 100 developers experiencing an 11.3% decline in sales in March compared to the previous year [21][22] - The report highlights the importance of policy support in stabilizing the market, recommending leading companies with strong urban resources for investment [24] Low-altitude Economy Development - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with the industry expected to reach a scale of 2 trillion CNY by 2030 [26][27] - The recent issuance of the first operational certificate for eVTOLs marks a significant milestone for commercial operations in this sector [14][15] Logistics Sector Performance - Zhonggu Logistics reported a revenue of 11.258 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 9.49%, but a net profit increase of 6.88% [32][33] - The growth in net profit is attributed to a rebound in domestic shipping rates and increased foreign trade revenues [32][33]