Sinotruk Jinan Truck (000951) 高盛·2025-04-02 14:06Investment Rating - The report rates Weichai Power as a "Buy" and Sinotruk as a "Sell" based on their respective market positions and earnings outlooks [8][24]. Core Insights - The China heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry is expected to enter a multi-year upcycle driven by normalization in replacement demand, with domestic demand forecasts raised by 14-26% for 2025E-2030E, anticipating a volume doubling by 2030E compared to 2024 [1][15]. - The penetration rates for LNG HDTs and electric HDTs (eHDTs) are projected to increase to 36% and 35% respectively by 2030E, with clean/new energy HDTs expected to account for over 70% of total HDT demand by 2030E [1][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report raises the outlook for the heavy-duty truck industry in China, indicating a positive cycle inflection into 2025E, supported by a rebalanced truck fleet size against current activity levels [17]. - The expected peak in sales volume is projected at 1.2 million units by 2030E, compared to 1.55 million units at the previous cycle peak in 2020 [15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that emission policies will play a crucial role in shaping the demand trajectory, with potential upgrades to emission standards and the phase-out of high-polluting trucks expected to drive demand [2]. - The domestic HDT sales volume is anticipated to see a mean reversion, gradually moving back to normalized replacement demand levels [9]. Company-Specific Insights - Weichai Power is favored due to its improving earnings power cycle-over-cycle, while Sinotruk faces margin pressure from a slowdown in high-margin export business and the impact of truck electrification [8][20]. - Revised EPS estimates for Sinotruk for 2025E-27E are 15-25% below consensus estimates, while Weichai's estimates are 6-18% above consensus, reflecting a more favorable outlook for Weichai [20][23]. Financial Projections - The report introduces new revenue and net profit estimates for both companies, with Weichai's target price raised to HK14.61/RMB16.30, while Sinotruk's target price is adjusted to HK17.30 [21][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic sales volume, with projections indicating a recovery in sales momentum driven by favorable replacement policies [25][66].