Richful(300910) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-03 09:11Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.157 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, and a net profit of 722 million yuan, up 19.13% year-on-year. The Q4 performance exceeded market expectations with a revenue of 857 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.05% [7] - The company is experiencing stable growth in shipments, with a total sales volume of 158,900 tons for lubricating oil additives in 2024, representing a 16.5% increase year-on-year. The demand in overseas markets is strong, particularly in Q4, where exports reached 28,100 tons, a 52% increase year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its overseas presence and has achieved significant scale advantages, with a designed production capacity of 315,000 tons for lubricating oil additives and an additional 435,000 tons under construction. The company has also secured multiple OEM certifications for its products [7] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to uncertainties in overseas trade, with expected net profits of 890 million yuan, and for 2026, 1.094 billion yuan. The PE ratios are projected at 18X for 2025 and 15X for 2026, indicating potential upside compared to the historical average [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue is projected to grow from 2.816 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.254 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.9% [6] - The net profit is expected to increase from 606 million yuan in 2023 to 1.319 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of around 20.5% [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 34.6% to 35.8% over the next few years, indicating strong profitability [6]