HDPI(600027) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-03 11:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 112.99 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.11% to 5.70 billion yuan, slightly below expectations due to a decline in long-term equity investment income and a significant increase in income tax expenses [7] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of 0.21 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 45.72% and a current dividend yield of about 3.7% [7] - The company’s thermal power generation decline has narrowed, with total power generation of 222.63 billion kWh in 2024, a decrease of 0.52% year-on-year [7] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 was 511.74 yuan per MWh, a slight decrease of 5.24 yuan per MWh year-on-year, with expectations for minimal price pressure in 2025 [7] - Cost improvements are ongoing, with a 4.13% decrease in operating costs for the thermal power segment in 2024, primarily due to falling coal prices [7] - Financial expenses decreased by 3.78 million yuan to 3.23 billion yuan in 2024, indicating reduced financial pressure [7] - The company is set to acquire high-quality thermal power assets totaling 15.97 million kW for 7.167 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance earnings per share by 7.81% and 2.87% post-acquisition [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards to 6.64 billion yuan and 7.12 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.42 billion yuan [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 117.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 4.52 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 3789% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is projected at 0.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9 [6]