AVICHM(600765) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-03 12:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue was 10.355 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.55% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, down 52.19% year-on-year, indicating performance below market expectations [5] - The decline in revenue is attributed to demand fluctuations and price adjustments from key customers, particularly in the forging and casting product segments [5] - The company is focusing on an integrated industrial chain development, which is expected to open up growth opportunities [5] - The company has seen stable growth in commercial aviation and civilian products, with commercial aviation revenue reaching 1.06 billion yuan, up 71% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in the aviation market in 2025, which could lead to stable revenue growth for the company [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 10.355 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 11.707 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 13.1% [5][7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 640 million yuan, with a significant recovery to 1.171 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 83% year-on-year increase [5][7] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 23.7%, down from 31.3% in 2023, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.6% in 2024 to 7.8% in 2025 [5][7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 15.94 yuan, with a market capitalization of 23.443 billion yuan [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 39 for 2024, decreasing to 21 in 2025 and further to 19 in 2026 [5][7] - The company’s net asset per share is 8.87 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.6% [2]