浦银国际策略观点：“对等关税”对中国市场影响几何？-2025-04-07

Core Insights - The report highlights the negative impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by the US, which exceeded market expectations, leading to increased market volatility and heightened risk aversion [3][5][9] - It anticipates a shift in focus back to fundamentals in the Chinese market, with potential for an independent market performance as sentiment improves [3][5] - The report suggests a defensive investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of increasing the weight of dividend-paying stocks in the portfolio [3][31] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the tariffs, major global markets, including US stocks, experienced significant declines, indicating a rise in risk aversion among investors [3][5] - The report notes that the tariffs could exacerbate the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the near term [3][5] - It emphasizes the need to monitor potential retaliatory measures from other countries and the risk of escalating trade tensions [3][5] Sector Impact - The report identifies sectors that are highly dependent on US imports, such as electronics, machinery, toys, and textiles, as being particularly vulnerable to the increased tariffs [9][12] - It suggests that industries with lower reliance on US imports, such as minerals and food products, will be less affected by the tariff increases [9][12] - The analysis indicates that the profit margins of export-oriented industries in China may be squeezed due to rising tariff costs [9][12] Investment Strategy - In light of increased uncertainty, the report recommends increasing the allocation to dividend-paying stocks, which can provide stable cash flow and mitigate market volatility [3][31] - It advises focusing on sectors with strong cash flow, sustainable dividends, and low valuations while avoiding cyclical industries [31] - If positive signals emerge from tariff negotiations, the report suggests reallocating to technology sectors to enhance growth potential and investment returns [31] Currency Impact - The report warns that the tariff situation may lead to increased volatility in the RMB exchange rate, which could affect market sentiment and capital flows [15][20] - It notes that the A-share market has shown resilience against global economic cycles, with stable liquidity and capital flows [15][20] - The report highlights that sectors with high overseas revenue exposure may be more susceptible to the impacts of US-China trade tensions [15][20] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The report discusses the limited impact of US market fluctuations on the Hong Kong market, suggesting that the latter is more influenced by fundamentals and corporate earnings [25][28] - It points out that the number of export-oriented companies listed in Hong Kong is relatively small, indicating that the direct impact of US tariffs on the Hong Kong market is limited [25][28] - The analysis shows that the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng Index has significantly decreased over time, suggesting a diminishing influence of US market movements on Hong Kong stocks [25][27]