浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 信达生物（1801.HK）：礼来战略合 作进一步提升公司国际化前景 信达是我们长期持续看好的生物科技龙头公司，重申"买入"评级， 上调目标价至 110 港元。 阳景 首席医药分析师 Jing_yang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6434 胡泽宇 CFA 医药分析师 ryan_hu@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6446 2026 年 2 月 12 日 | 评级 | | | --- | --- | | 目标价（港元） | 110.0 | | 潜在升幅/降幅 | +23% | | 目前股价（港元） | 89.7 | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 34.6-109.1 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 155,559 | | 近 3 月日均成交额（百万） | 1,014 | 市场预期区间 SPDBI 目标价 ◆ 目前价 ◆市场预期区间 *数据截至 2026 年 2 月 11 日 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 HK$98.0 HK$89.7 HK$110.0 HK$137.4 股价表现 | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) based on strong fundamentals, solid performance, and a focus on shareholder returns [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in market sentiment and potential sales recovery, which may help profit margins exceed market expectations [1]. - In Q4 2025, same-store sales growth and operating profit margins significantly surpassed market expectations, with a 25% year-on-year increase in operating profit [14]. - Management observed a positive trend in short-term sales and has slightly increased delivery prices to alleviate rising delivery costs [1][7]. - The company aims for a modest same-store sales growth of 0-2% in 2026, aligning with its long-term growth targets [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2025 same-store sales grew by 3% year-on-year, with KFC achieving a 3% increase and Pizza Hut a 1% increase [15]. - System sales (excluding FX) increased by 7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [14]. - The company reported a net profit of $153 million in Q4 2025, a 21.4% increase year-on-year, with a cash dividend of $0.29 per share, up 21% from the previous quarter [14][15]. - For 2026, the company expects to add 1,900 new stores, with a capital expenditure of $600-700 million [17]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 are estimated at $12.594 billion, reflecting a 6.8% year-on-year growth [9]. - The net profit for 2026 is projected to be $1.014 billion, a 9.2% increase from 2025 [11]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in raw material costs, although the rate of decrease is expected to slow [7]. Market Valuation - The target price for Yum China is set at $64.8, representing an upside potential of 11.8% from the current price of $57.95 [2]. - The report indicates a market capitalization of $19.723 billion for Yum China [2].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the sentiment index for the Hong Kong stock market is currently at 72.9, having dropped from a high of 87.8 on January 29, suggesting a shift from extreme optimism to a more cautious outlook [1][3] - The report highlights that liquidity factors continue to dominate market sentiment, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for the Hang Seng Index at 13.1, reflecting a 4% decline from its peak in January [3] - The report suggests that the market is expected to maintain a volatile stance in the short term, with a focus on dividend value stocks as part of a barbell strategy [3] Market Sentiment Analysis - As of February 3, the sentiment index is still in the optimistic range, but historical data indicates a high probability of a short-term weakening when the index reaches extreme levels [1][3] - Various trading indicators have shown weakening momentum since January 30, with increased risk premiums, short-selling ratios, and put/call ratios indicating rising bearish sentiment [1][3] - The report notes that out of 13 indicators contributing to the sentiment index, 4 have shown strong improvement, while 7 have weakened, indicating mixed signals in market dynamics [3][6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a short-term investment strategy focusing on dividend value stocks, particularly in sectors such as banking, insurance, telecommunications, public utilities, and energy, while also considering consumer sectors [3] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring foreign capital inflows, especially from active foreign investors, as external liquidity factors may influence market performance [3] - The report suggests that the "technology + dividend" barbell strategy remains effective, with a recommendation to increase the weight of dividend stocks in the portfolio [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of HKD 60.6 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's preliminary earnings forecast for 2025 aligns with expectations, projecting over 45% year-on-year revenue growth, over 70% gross profit growth, and over 38% net profit growth attributable to shareholders [8][11]. - WuXi AppTec has signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, benefiting from strong growth in the US and China, with over half of these projects coming from new ADC contributions [8][11]. - The company has provided a long-term revenue guidance of a 30-35% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is above the industry average of 25.6% CAGR [8][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 58.7 billion, RMB 79.4 billion, and RMB 105.9 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 16.0 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 29.1 billion [11][12]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be approximately 35.8%, which is better than previous expectations [8][11]. - The company anticipates significant commercial revenue starting in 2027, with limited contributions expected in 2026 as it focuses on building commercial production records [8][11]. Capacity Expansion - WuXi AppTec is accelerating capacity expansion through both self-built facilities and acquisitions, with capital expenditures expected to rise to RMB 1.7 billion in 2026 from RMB 1.22 billion in 2025 [2][10]. - The company has established dual production bases in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion, including new production lines in Wuxi and Singapore [2][10]. - The acquisition of Hefei and Dongyao Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and client network, contributing to a market share of over 24% in the global ADC outsourcing market [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of HKD 60.6 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's preliminary earnings forecast for 2025 shows revenue growth exceeding 45% year-on-year, with gross profit growth over 70% and net profit growth exceeding 38% [8][11]. - WuXi AppTec has signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, benefiting from strong growth in the US and China, with over half of these projects coming from new ADC contributions [8][11]. - The company has provided a long-term revenue guidance of a 30-35% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is above the industry average of 25.6% CAGR [8][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 58.7 billion, RMB 79.4 billion, and RMB 105.9 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 16.0 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 29.1 billion [11][12]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be around 35.8%, which is better than previous expectations [8][11]. - The company anticipates significant commercial revenue starting in 2027, with limited contributions expected in 2026 as it focuses on accumulating production records [8][11]. Capacity Expansion - WuXi AppTec is accelerating capacity expansion through both self-built facilities and acquisitions, with capital expenditures expected to rise to RMB 1.7 billion in 2026 from RMB 1.22 billion in 2025 [2][10]. - The company has established dual production bases in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion, including new DP production lines in Wuxi and a new facility in Singapore expected to achieve GMP release in 2026 [2][10]. - The company has a global market share of over 24% in the ADC outsourcing service market, indicating a strong competitive position [10].

Labor Market Overview - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a rare phenomenon of simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand, leading to a cooling effect[12] - In 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by only 584,000, significantly lower than 2,012,000 in 2024 and 2,594,000 in 2023, marking the lowest level since 2010 excluding the pandemic[6] - The unemployment rate rose moderately from an average of 4.03% in 2024 to 4.24% in 2025, indicating a gradual increase rather than a sharp spike[6] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in December 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio fell from 1.09 at the end of 2024 to 0.92 in November 2025, reflecting a tighter labor market[9] - The PMI employment index for manufacturing dropped below 50, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery, reaching 52 in December 2025[16] Future Projections - The downward trend in the labor market is expected to continue into 2026, but the likelihood of a rapid deterioration leading to recession is low[29] - The average unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2026, up from 4.2% in 2025, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges[29] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 to mitigate labor market deterioration[29] Risks and Challenges - Risks include slow rate cuts potentially triggering a recession, prolonged inflation due to tariffs, and the effectiveness of policy stimulus falling short of expectations[29] - The labor force participation rate slightly declined from an average of 62.6% in 2024 to 62.4% in 2025, indicating reduced labor supply[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 97.3, representing a potential upside of 17.8% from the current price of HKD 82.6 [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, in Q4 2025 showed contrasting results, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail sales while Fila saw growth due to strategic adjustments by the new management [1][2]. - The long-term growth of the company is expected to rely on its multi-brand globalization strategy, despite short-term pressures on profit margins in 2026 [3][2]. - The report emphasizes that while the market sentiment may remain weak in the short term, the company's ongoing efforts in brand diversification and global expansion are likely to drive sales and profit growth in the long run [3][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 62,356 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. The revenue is expected to reach RMB 79,961 million in 2025, growing at 12.9% [10]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10,236 million, with a significant increase of 34.9% compared to the previous year. However, a decline of 15.9% is anticipated for 2026, with a recovery expected in 2027 [10][12]. - The operating profit margin is projected to decrease from 24.6% in 2023 to 22.8% in 2025, reflecting the anticipated pressures on profitability [12]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales in Q4 2025 recorded a slight decline of less than 1% year-on-year, while Fila's sales grew in the mid-single digits, attributed to effective management strategies [1][2]. - Other brands under the company are expected to maintain high double-digit growth in 2026, although at a slower pace compared to 2025 [2][3]. Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance its market investment in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games, which is expected to support brand visibility and sales [2]. - The report suggests that the market should focus on the strategic significance of new brand acquisitions for long-term growth rather than short-term performance impacts [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Short-term negative sentiment may persist, but there is optimism about the long-term development trend of the brand globalization [3] - The performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, shows contrasting results in Q4 2025, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail revenue while Fila saw growth [1][2] - The company is expected to face pressure on profit margins in 2026, influenced by various factors including increased market investment and potential losses from acquisitions [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's retail revenue in Q4 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of less than 1%, primarily due to weak industry demand and warmer weather [1] - Fila's revenue in Q4 2025 grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1] - Other brands experienced a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4 2025, with Descente growing by 25-30% and Kolon by 50-55% [1] Future Projections - The management aims for Anta's revenue to achieve positive growth in 2026, supported by adjustments in online operations and store renovations [2] - Fila's operational adjustments are expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum in 2026, while other brands are projected to sustain high double-digit growth, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025 [2] - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [2] Financial Estimates - The report maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 but has slightly lowered the net profit expectations for 2026 due to anticipated weaker profit margins [3] - The projected revenue for 2026 is RMB 88.553 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 14.361 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [10][16] - The company's profit margin is expected to face significant pressure in 2026 due to various factors, including potential losses from acquisitions [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the intelligent driving Tier 1 industry [3][7][10]. Core Insights - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the expansion of domain controllers as the core decision-making component of intelligent driving systems. The market for intelligent driving domain controllers is expected to reach RMB 428.4 billion by 2029, with China accounting for nearly 40% of this market [3][7][10]. - Domestic automakers are pushing for "intelligent driving equality," which is leading to a significant increase in the penetration rate of intelligent driving domain controllers. The penetration rate reached 27.6% from January to October 2025 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic Tier 1 suppliers to expand into international markets due to their technological advantages and cost efficiencies [3][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by the evolution of supply chains and the integration of intelligent driving technologies. The shift from traditional supply chain structures to more integrated and collaborative models is evident [11][15][16]. Current Industry Status - The penetration rate of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in new energy vehicles has significantly increased, with L2 and above ADAS installation rates reaching 87% in the first ten months of 2025, up 19.5 percentage points year-on-year [44][50]. - The report notes that the market for high-level intelligent driving features is expanding, with a notable increase in the availability of models equipped with Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) capabilities [44][48]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the intelligent driving sector, with domestic brands expected to capture over half of the market share for intelligent driving domain controllers by the end of 2025 [10][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and the integration of AI in driving automation, which is expected to create new growth opportunities in the robotics sector [10][34]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for intelligent driving Tier 1 suppliers is evolving, with domestic players gaining market share and establishing themselves as key players in the industry [3][10]. - The report covers three specific companies: Youjia Innovation (2431.HK), Desay SV (002920.CH), and Zhixing Technology (1274.HK), all of which are given a "Buy" rating [3][10][8].

Economic Growth - China's Q4 2025 real GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, in line with market expectations, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Nominal GDP growth slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in Q4, after two consecutive quarters of decline[2] - Quarterly economic growth rose by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly better than the market expectation of 1.1%[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - December retail sales growth continued to decline for seven consecutive months, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth fell by 1.2 percentage points to -3.8% in December, worse than the market expectation of -3.1%[4] - Cumulative per capita disposable income growth for urban residents decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, a smaller decline than the real economic growth rate[2] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production value year-on-year growth rebounded by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2% in December, exceeding market expectations of 5.0%[5] - December export growth increased from 5.9% in November to 6.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 3.1%[7] - Net exports contributed 1.4% to economic growth in Q4, up from 1.2% in Q3, while investment and consumption contributions declined[2] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, better than the market expectation of 5.2%[5] - December CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven mainly by increases in food and gold prices[6] Policy Outlook - The focus of policy may need to continue on improving domestic demand, with expectations for additional stimulus measures post the National People's Congress[6] - The central bank is unlikely to implement rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions before the Spring Festival, with such actions potentially delayed until after the National People's Congress[8]