浦银国际研究 策略月报 | 投资策略 月度市场策略：危机中的新机遇 赖烨烨 首席策略分析师 Melody_lai@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6441 2025 年 4 月 30 日 扫码关注浦银国际研究 浦银国际 策略月报 月度市场策略：危机中的新机遇 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 | 焦点图表 | 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 月度中国市场回顾及展望 5 | | | | 估值：港股估值回归至偏低水平 8 | | | | 盈利增长：关税战增加企业盈利端压力 | | 10 | | 资金流向：外资转为净流出，国内增量资金大幅净流入 | | 12 | | 行业配置、轮动与风格切换 | | 15 | | 投资策略主题："科技+消费"双轮驱动，港股 IPO 迎来新机遇 | | 18 | | 港股今年 IPO 募集资金为何显著高于去年同期？ 18 | | | | 今年港股 IPO 有何特点？ 20 | | | | A+H 两地上市会不会成为一种重要的上市方式？ 21 | | | | 美股中概股加速回归对 ...

浦银国际研究 首次覆盖 | 互联网行业 Innodata（INOD.US）：大模型时代 "卖铲人"，数据标注乘势而起 Innodata 深耕数据标注，持续受益于 AI 大模型对数据的需求增长，是 数据标注行业稀缺上市标的。公司客户聚焦美国大型科技企业，已覆 盖"美股七巨头"中的五家，巨头围绕 AI 基建的资本支出扩张或带来 增量。公司增长势头强劲，2024 年收入增长 96%，公司预计 2025 年 收入增长 40%+。我们首次覆盖 Innodata（INOD.US），给予"买入"评 级，目标价为 55 美元，潜在升幅 44%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 USD 72 USD 75 USD 38 USD 55 股价表现 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 20 40 60 80 1/2025 2/2025 3/2025 4/2025 Innodata股份有限公司股价(美元) 相对于标普500指数表现(右轴) 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 | 美元百万 | 2023 | 2024 | 202 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 半导体行业 韦尔股份（603501.CH）：一季度利润 超市场预期，汽车 CIS 预计大幅成长 马智焱 我们略微调整韦尔股份 2025、2026 年盈利预测，并上调目标价至人民 币 153.0 元，潜在升幅 19.1%，维持"买入"评级。 • 重申韦尔股份的"买入"评级：韦尔股份进入比较强势的产品周期， 多个板块推动 2025 年业务成长。首先，受益于比亚迪推动的智驾平权 带来的新能源车智驾渗透率大幅提升，随着车载 CIS 产能的进一步释 放，公司今年的汽车 CIS 将取得大幅成长。其次，公司布局的汽车模拟 类产品也同样放量成长，从而推动整个模拟业务板块的成长。第三， 公司手机 CIS 业务在下半年大量新品上市的节奏下，有望持续扩张高 端市场份额。第四，公司触控显示业务有望在今年取得盈亏平衡。最 后，从长期来看，公司多个业务板块潜在成长天花板已经打开，长期 增长预期较为乐观。目前，公司远期市盈率为 30.0x，低于历史均值， 估值具备上行空间，重申"买入"评级。 • 一季度业绩超市场预期：今年一季度，韦尔股份收入达到人民币 64.7 亿元，同比增长 15%，环比下降 5%，创历史一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [10] Core Views - The target price for BYD shares is adjusted to HKD 458.8, representing a potential upside of 20% for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 444.0 for the A-share, with a potential upside of 23% [2][6] - BYD's first-quarter performance sets a growth tone for 2025, with a projected sales volume of 5.5 million vehicles for the year, driven by significant advancements in smart driving technology [10] - The report anticipates a doubling of BYD's overseas sales this year, while single-vehicle profitability is expected to remain stable [10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for BYD from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 602,315 million - 2024: RMB 777,102 million - 2025E: RMB 892,238 million - 2026E: RMB 1,053,310 million - 2027E: RMB 1,186,221 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at 42% for 2023, 29% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 13% by 2027 [3][11] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 30,041 million - 2024: RMB 40,254 million - 2025E: RMB 49,632 million - 2026E: RMB 60,562 million - 2027E: RMB 70,470 million - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 81% in 2023, 34% in 2024, and tapering to 16% by 2027 [3][11] Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, BYD's revenue reached RMB 170,360 million, a 36% year-on-year increase, while net profit doubled to RMB 9,155 million [12] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 20.1%, showing a decline of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [12] - The automotive sales volume in Q1 2025 was 1,000,804 units, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [12] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 28.0x for the electric vehicle segment, 17.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other segments, leading to target prices of HKD 458.8 and RMB 444.0 [10][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics, with a target price adjusted to HKD 40.7, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 34.8 [1][3]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics is expected to achieve steady profit growth this year, driven by the automotive intelligence sector, particularly supported by BYD's automotive sales. The company's products in smart driving and suspension are anticipated to drive revenue growth that outpaces the parent company's automotive sales growth [9]. - The company is actively enhancing operational efficiency, which is expected to lead to a reduction in expense ratios and provide a foundation for profit release. The current valuation, with a P/E ratio of 13.5x, is considered attractive [9]. - The first quarter of this year saw a slight increase in revenue and profit, with revenue reaching RMB 36.88 billion, a year-on-year growth of 1%. The gross margin was 6.3%, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.6 percentage points [9][11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for BYD Electronics from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 129,957 million - 2024: RMB 177,306 million (21% growth) - 2025E: RMB 193,450 million (9% growth) - 2026E: RMB 216,411 million (12% growth) - 2027E: RMB 239,562 million (11% growth) [2][10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2023: RMB 4,041 million - 2024: RMB 4,266 million (6% growth) - 2025E: RMB 4,758 million (12% growth) - 2026E: RMB 5,938 million (25% growth) - 2027E: RMB 7,031 million (18% growth) [2][10]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation of BYD Electronics is conducted using a sum-of-the-parts approach, assigning target P/E ratios to various segments, leading to a target price of HKD 40.7 [9][13]. - The segments and their respective target P/E ratios for 2025 are: - International customer assembly: 12x - International customer components: 13x - Android assembly: 12x - Android components: 15x - New smart products: 21x - Automotive intelligent systems: 35x [13]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 24.85 to HKD 61.55, with a total market capitalization of HKD 71,877 million [3][9]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 1,252 million [3].

Economic Performance - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 remains at 5.4%, exceeding market expectations of 5.2%[3] - Nominal GDP growth also holds steady at 4.6%[4] - March industrial production growth surged to 7.7%, significantly above the expected 5.9%[8] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in March increased by 5.9%, surpassing the market forecast of 4.3%[5] - Fixed asset investment growth improved marginally to 4.2%, slightly above expectations[8] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.9%, while new construction area decreased by 24.4%[8] External Factors and Risks - Export growth accelerated to 12.4% in March, despite ongoing tariff impacts from the US-China trade war[7] - The trade surplus increased by 49% year-on-year, but future export growth faces significant risks due to tariffs[9] - The overall economic growth forecast for the year is at risk, with a potential downward adjustment from the current 4.5%[9] Policy Responses - The government is expected to implement additional fiscal stimulus of 1% to 1.5% of GDP to counteract tariff impacts[10] - Monetary policy may see a reduction in reserve requirements by 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 30 to 40 basis points this year[12] - Potential measures include lowering housing fund loan rates and offering tax incentives to boost housing market confidence[12]

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. fell to 0.06% in March, down 0.17 percentage points from February, significantly below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth turned negative at -0.05% in March, down from 0.22% in February, also below the market expectation of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI and core CPI decreased by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding market expectations of 140,000 and significantly up from 117,000 in February[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.15% in March, compared to 4.14% in February[2] Tariff Impact - The weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. increased from 20.5% to 25.9% since Trump's administration, potentially raising inflation by 1.1 to 2.3 percentage points[3] - If the "reciprocal tariff" policy is fully implemented, the inflation impact could rise to 1.4 to 2.7 percentage points[3] Interest Rate Outlook - The forecast remains for 2-3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year, although uncertainty due to tariff policies has increased[4] - The Federal Reserve may need to observe the situation before making decisions, as tariffs could push inflation higher[5] Economic Risks - Risks include slow rate cuts leading to recession and the potential for stagflation due to aggressive tariff policies[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 38.7 [2][5]. Core Insights - The commercialization of CM310 is progressing well, with satisfactory sales performance in the first quarter. The company aims to expand its commercialization team from over 300 to 500 by the end of 2025, focusing on hospital access and negotiations for insurance coverage [3]. - The next-generation dual antibody CM512 is a key product in the research pipeline, with Phase 1 data expected in Q3 2025. The company is also advancing overseas clinical trials for several molecules, with data expected in 2026 [4][10]. - The company has set a sales guidance of RMB 500 million for the year, with significant contributions expected in the second half [3]. Summary by Sections Commercialization Progress - CM310's commercialization team is currently over 300 members, with plans to expand to 500 by the end of 2025. The team is focused on increasing hospital access and engaging with dermatologists and ENT specialists [3]. - The first quarter sales performance was satisfactory, with 29 provinces already having access to CM310. The pricing strategy positions CM310 competitively against existing treatments [3]. Research and Development - CM512, targeting TSLP and IL-13, is in the second position globally for development. The company is focusing on autoimmune and respiratory indications, with ongoing trials in China and plans for international trials [4][10]. - The company anticipates multiple overseas data readouts in 2026, including for CM901 and CM336 [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 354 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 2.249 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 46% [12][14]. - The company expects to incur losses in the coming years, with net losses projected to peak at RMB 737 million in 2026 before improving [12][14].

Core Insights - The report highlights the negative impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by the US, which exceeded market expectations, leading to increased market volatility and heightened risk aversion [3][5][9] - It anticipates a shift in focus back to fundamentals in the Chinese market, with potential for an independent market performance as sentiment improves [3][5] - The report suggests a defensive investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of increasing the weight of dividend-paying stocks in the portfolio [3][31] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the tariffs, major global markets, including US stocks, experienced significant declines, indicating a rise in risk aversion among investors [3][5] - The report notes that the tariffs could exacerbate the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the near term [3][5] - It emphasizes the need to monitor potential retaliatory measures from other countries and the risk of escalating trade tensions [3][5] Sector Impact - The report identifies sectors that are highly dependent on US imports, such as electronics, machinery, toys, and textiles, as being particularly vulnerable to the increased tariffs [9][12] - It suggests that industries with lower reliance on US imports, such as minerals and food products, will be less affected by the tariff increases [9][12] - The analysis indicates that the profit margins of export-oriented industries in China may be squeezed due to rising tariff costs [9][12] Investment Strategy - In light of increased uncertainty, the report recommends increasing the allocation to dividend-paying stocks, which can provide stable cash flow and mitigate market volatility [3][31] - It advises focusing on sectors with strong cash flow, sustainable dividends, and low valuations while avoiding cyclical industries [31] - If positive signals emerge from tariff negotiations, the report suggests reallocating to technology sectors to enhance growth potential and investment returns [31] Currency Impact - The report warns that the tariff situation may lead to increased volatility in the RMB exchange rate, which could affect market sentiment and capital flows [15][20] - It notes that the A-share market has shown resilience against global economic cycles, with stable liquidity and capital flows [15][20] - The report highlights that sectors with high overseas revenue exposure may be more susceptible to the impacts of US-China trade tensions [15][20] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The report discusses the limited impact of US market fluctuations on the Hong Kong market, suggesting that the latter is more influenced by fundamentals and corporate earnings [25][28] - It points out that the number of export-oriented companies listed in Hong Kong is relatively small, indicating that the direct impact of US tariffs on the Hong Kong market is limited [25][28] - The analysis shows that the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng Index has significantly decreased over time, suggesting a diminishing influence of US market movements on Hong Kong stocks [25][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.CH) with a target price of RMB 69.2, representing a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of RMB 59.8 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the weak performance in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the company's proactive inventory clearance, which has now returned to a healthier level. The sales performance in Q1 2025 is expected to be stable, and the company is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to a lower sales base in the second half of the year [1][5]. - The company is adjusting its product and channel structure, which is expected to lead to more positive changes by 2026. The growth of brands like Lebao and regional products is helping to balance the product mix, which has been heavily reliant on the high-end product "Wusu" [1][5][7]. - The report highlights a shift in sales channels, with the on-trade channel's share decreasing from 55% in 2019 to 44% in 2024. The company plans to continue expanding its off-trade channels in 2025, which will help mitigate the impact of declining foot traffic in on-trade channels [5][11]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the report forecasts a revenue of RMB 14,937 million, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,157 million, a 3.8% increase from 2024 [7][9]. - The average selling price is projected to remain under pressure due to weak market demand for high-end beers, despite a favorable outlook on raw material costs [5][9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected gross margin of 42.1% for 2025, with a stable cost structure anticipated due to declining barley prices [7][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the company is focusing on enhancing its market share in key cities while maintaining a consistent number of cities covered in 2025. This strategy aims to deepen market penetration and improve brand visibility [5][11]. - The competitive landscape is highlighted, with the company facing challenges from market competition and the need to improve its product structure to sustain growth [5][9].