Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the tourism industry, indicating a resilient market with a recommendation to focus on OTA and domestic hotel sectors [2]. Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing steady growth, with domestic travel reaching 765 million trips during the National Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019 [1]. - Total domestic tourist spending during the holiday was approximately 700.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% and a 7.9% increase compared to 2019 [1]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing travel demand despite a decrease in average spending per person, attributed to lower prices for flights and accommodations [1]. - International travel is also recovering, with outbound travel bookings nearly doubling year-on-year, particularly from lower-tier cities [1][2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Travel Trends - Domestic travel during the National Day holiday saw 765 million trips, with a 5.9% increase year-on-year and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019 [1]. - Average spending per person was approximately 916 yuan, nearly flat year-on-year, recovering to 98% of 2019 levels [1]. - The decline in travel costs, with flight prices down 15.1% and hotel prices down 6%, has contributed to the increase in travel demand [1]. International Travel Trends - Outbound travel has shown strong growth, with bookings increasing by nearly 100% year-on-year [1]. - The majority of outbound travel destinations are concentrated in East Asia and Southeast Asia [1]. - Residents from lower-tier cities are increasingly participating in international travel, with a threefold increase in orders from these areas during the holiday [1]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the tourism market will continue to show resilience, with a trend of rising travel demand and falling prices likely to benefit OTA and domestic hotel sectors [2]. - The focus on lower-tier cities and the potential for international business expansion are highlighted as key areas for growth [2].

Economic Indicators - The core CPI inflation rate in the US for August rose to 0.28%, up from 0.17% in July, exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%[1] - Overall CPI growth increased by 0.04 percentage points to 0.19%, aligning with market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.2%[1] Housing and Services - Housing prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.52%, the highest since February of this year[1] - The owner’s equivalent rent inflation rate rose to 0.50% in August, up from 0.36% in July, marking another peak since February[1] - The inflation rate for temporary lodging surged to 1.75% in August, up from 0.22% in July, driven by seasonal tourism[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls added 142,000 jobs in August, a recovery from July but still below market expectations[2] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in August, with temporary unemployment dropping from 1.062 million in July to 872,000[2] - The three-month moving average for new jobs fell to 116,000, the lowest since the second half of 2020[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, supported by the recent inflation and employment data[2] - The potential for a 50 basis point cut in future meetings remains if economic data indicates signs of recession[2] - The JOLT job openings to unemployment ratio fell to 1.07 in July, below the pre-pandemic average of 1.19, indicating a weakening labor market[2]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 财务模型更新 财务模型更新 | 消费行业 贝泰妮（300957.CH）：并购子品牌驱动 收入增长，主品牌调整成效仍需时间 贝泰妮 2Q24 收入同比录得增长 13.5%，主要是 2023 年收购的悦江旗 下品牌 Za 和泊美收入共人民币 1.3 亿元带动。如剔除悦江收入，贝泰 妮可比口径在 2Q24 仅同比增长 5.1%，薇诺娜品牌的战略调整效果尚 未展现。我们下调贝泰妮 2024-2026E 盈利预测，下调目标价至人民币 43.0 元，维持贝泰妮"持有"评级。 悦江为收入带来增量，主品牌增长乏力：尽管贝泰妮 2Q24 收入同比 增长 13.5%，但这主要是因为悦江旗下 Za 和泊美两品牌录得收入人民 币 1.3 亿元。由于悦江仅仅是在 2023 年 10 月 31 日并入公司，因此 上年同期无此项收入。如剔除悦江带来的收入，贝泰妮自有品牌 2Q24 收入仅同比增长 5.1%，低于 1Q24 自有品牌 11.1%的同比增长。虽然 悦江的加入有力地提高了公司多品牌矩阵的成熟度，并增加了收入来 源，但是目前悦江的收入贡献占比仍较少，仅占公司收入的 7.4%，尚 未能有效地拉动公司整体收入的 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 华熙生物 （688363.CH） 华熙生物（688363.CH）：调整进行 时，业绩反弹道阻且长 在功能性护肤品业务条线大举调整的背景下，2Q24 公司收入负增长 18.1%，又因资产及信用减值令归母净利润同比下降 56%。季度业绩的 同比下降再次印证我们对于华熙生物业务重回增长轨道仍需时间的观 点。我们维持华熙生物"持有"评级，下调目标价至人民币 48.9 元。 功能性护肤品调整进行中，但恢复增长有待时日：公司自 2023 年中开 启对功能性护肤品业务线的调整，也直接造成了 1H24 功能性护肤品 业务收入同比下降 30%。公司表示，在四大品牌中，尽管润百颜的业 务及组织结构调整已相对完善，但收入仍同比下降超 10%，其余品牌 则降幅更高。作为对公司收入贡献最大的业务线，功能性护肤品收入 的下降也导致公司整体 1H24 收入增速由正转负。我们认为，功能性护 肤品条线在下半年将环比有所增长，主要是由于：（1）新产品：润百 颜、夸迪两大品牌将推出新产品，利用新产品、新原料吸引消费者； （2）提早备战双十一：管理层表示四大品牌均将双十一作为业绩达成 的主要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Baosheng (3813.HK), with a target price of HKD 0.73, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% from the current price of HKD 0.63 [2][4]. Core Insights - Despite a significant revenue decline of 9% in 1H24, Baosheng achieved a 10% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, showcasing strong operational management [2][9]. - The company’s ability to expand its operating profit margin amidst declining revenues reflects effective cost control and operational efficiency enhancements [2][9]. - The second half of 2024 will largely depend on revenue performance, but the benefits of cost-cutting measures are expected to continue [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of RMB 18,514 million for 2024E, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year [3][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 516 million for 2024E, a 5% increase compared to the previous year [3][11]. - **Profit Margins**: The operating profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase anticipated in 2024 [2][9]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The diluted earnings per share is projected to be HKD 0.10 for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio close to 55%, leading to a dividend yield of 9.5% based on current stock price [2][9][10]. Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced overall operating expenses by 9% year-on-year, attributed to the closure of inefficient stores and optimization of rental costs [2][9]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.0 percentage points in 2Q24, driven by better retail discount management and a shift in channel structure due to a decline in wholesale revenue [2][9]. Market Outlook - The demand in the international brand retail market remains weak, and Baosheng is expected to focus on maintaining healthy inventory levels and improving retail discounts in the second half of 2024 [2][9]. - The company may increase the scale of its wholesale business to compensate for the decline in direct store sales, which could positively impact channel structure and gross margins [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 5.1, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 4.1 [7][9][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for smartphone camera modules and improvements in product structure, leading to increased average selling prices [7][16]. - The automotive camera module business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for profitability improvement as the company engages with domestic and international automotive manufacturers [7][16]. - The report highlights that the fingerprint recognition segment is expected to significantly reduce losses, contributing positively to overall performance [7][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: RMB 13,759 million - 2023: RMB 12,531 million (down 9% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 16,197 million (up 29% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 18,545 million (up 14% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 21,929 million (up 18% YoY) [5][10][14]. - Net profit is projected to recover significantly: - 2022: RMB 171 million - 2023: RMB 82 million (down 52% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 274 million (up 234% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 385 million (up 41% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 513 million (up 33% YoY) [5][10][14]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 3.9% in 2022 to 6.4% by 2026E, reflecting better product mix and cost management [5][10][14]. Segment Performance - The company’s camera module segment is projected to generate significant revenue, with expectations of 221 million units shipped in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 30% increase YoY [13]. - The average selling price for camera modules is anticipated to rise, contributing to revenue growth [13]. - The automotive camera module segment is expected to maintain high growth momentum, with approximately 200,000 units shipped in the first half of 2024 [7][13]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target P/E ratios of 14.0x for smartphone camera modules, 18.0x for other camera modules, 8.0x for fingerprint recognition modules, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to a target price of HKD 5.1 [7][16][17].

浦银国际 公司研究 中芯国际 （981.HK/688981.CH） 浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 半导体行业 沈岱 首席科技分析师 tony_shen@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6435 马智焱 科技分析师 ivy_ma@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0300 黄佳琦 科技分析师 sia_huang@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0355 2024 年 8 月 12 日 中芯国际（981.HK） 目标价（港元） 19.3 潜在升幅/降幅 +22% 目前股价（港元） 15.8 52 周内股价区间（港元） 13.9-25.2 总市值（百万港元） 131,917 近 3 月日均成交额（百万港元） 735 注：截至 2024 年 8 月 8 收盘价 市场预期区间 HKD 13.0 HKD 22.4 HKD 15.8HKD 19.3 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 中芯国际（688981.CH） 目标价（人民币） 56.7 潜在升幅/降幅 +26% 目前股价（人民币） 45.0 52 周内股价区间（人民币） 40.0-59.4 总市 ...

风险提示：美联储未及时对经济走弱做出反应而引起经济衰退，提早 降息导致通胀率居高不下和经济过热，地缘政治风险推升通胀。 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

浦银国际研究 中国消费行业 首次覆盖 2024 年 7 月 8 日 超配 首次覆盖 尽管短期内,中国酒店业面临着高基数、消费理性化以及恶劣天气影响的冲击,但长期来看随着 消费者境内游热情高涨以及差旅需求恢复,中国酒店市场有望持续恢复。我们基于两极化的下沉 市场连锁化率提升和结构升级的市场整合趋势,认为酒店品牌的品牌力、会员粘性和轻资产运营 能力是评价酒店集团的主要标准。我们首次覆盖中国酒店行业,给予"超配"评级。首次覆盖给 予亚朵集团(ATAT.US)、华住集团(1179.HK/HTHT.US)"买入"评级,给予锦江酒店(600754.CH) 和首旅酒店(600258.CH)"持有"评级。 林闻嘉(首席消费分析师) richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠,CFA(消费分析师) serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 欢迎关注 浦银国际研究 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制,请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 目 求 | | |---------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $23 7, implying a potential upside of 22 2% from the current price of $19 4 [2][3] Core Views - Luckin Coffee has become the largest chain coffee brand in China, surpassing Starbucks in both store count and order volume, driven by strong brand marketing, product innovation, and affordable pricing [3] - The company has successfully transformed from a loss-making, credibility-damaged company to a profitable and rapidly expanding brand, focusing on product innovation, youth-oriented marketing, and cost-effective strategies [3] - Luckin Coffee's future growth potential lies in its ability to consolidate the market, expand into lower-tier cities, and explore overseas markets, despite short-term pressure on profitability due to intense competition [3] Industry Overview - The Chinese coffee market has grown significantly, with the overall market size reaching RMB 82 8 billion in 2023, and per capita coffee consumption reaching RMB 58 8 [12] - Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee shops have become the primary channel for coffee consumption in China, contributing 66 5% of the total retail coffee market revenue in 2023, far exceeding instant coffee and RTD coffee [14] - The rise of RTD coffee shops in China is attributed to urbanization, the influence of Western lifestyles, the role of social media, and the addictive nature of coffee [15] Luckin Coffee's Strategy - Luckin Coffee has disrupted the traditional coffee market by offering a wide variety of products at affordable prices, making RTD coffee more accessible to the general public [3] - The company has focused on product innovation, such as the introduction of coconut latte and sauce-flavored latte, which have become viral hits on social media [3][25] - Luckin Coffee has adopted a franchise model to expand into lower-tier cities, with 5,620 franchise stores accounting for 34 6% of its total store count by the end of 2023 [35] Market Competition - Starbucks and Luckin Coffee have been the key players driving the development of the Chinese RTD coffee market, with Starbucks establishing the premium image of RTD coffee and Luckin Coffee making it more accessible to the masses [16] - The Chinese coffee market is becoming more segmented, with the emergence of both mass-market and premium coffee brands catering to different consumer needs [44] - Starbucks' market share in China has been declining since 2017, as new players like Luckin Coffee and other mass-market brands have gained traction [47] Future Growth Potential - The penetration rate of coffee in lower-tier cities is expected to continue rising, driven by increasing consumer acceptance, economic development, and the return of young people from higher-tier cities [35] - The high-tier cities are experiencing a trend of consumption stratification, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive and demanding higher quality and more diverse coffee products [39] - The Chinese coffee market is expected to continue growing, with the RTD coffee market projected to reach RMB 52 5 billion by 2026, driven by the expansion of mass-market brands and the rise of premium coffee brands [38] Financial Performance - Luckin Coffee's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 24 9 billion in 2023 to RMB 52 5 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 2 8 billion to RMB 5 1 billion over the same period [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 55%, with operating margin improving from 12 1% in 2023 to 11 9% in 2026 [8] - Luckin Coffee's valuation is considered attractive compared to international coffee chains and large-scale Chinese restaurant chains, with potential for further upside if the company relists on a major stock exchange [3]