Policy Overview - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy announced by Trump on April 2, 2025, exceeds market expectations, with a 25% tariff on automobiles effective April 3, 2025[1] - The U.S. government is projected to increase tariff revenue by approximately $600 billion annually, totaling $6 trillion over ten years due to the stringent "reciprocal tariffs" policy[1] Impact on Trade and Economy - The additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports is expected to reduce China's export growth by 10 percentage points and drag down GDP growth by 2 percentage points[2] - Cumulatively, the tariffs could lower China's export growth by 16 percentage points and GDP growth by 3.2 percentage points[4] Inflation and Economic Risks - The tariffs are projected to raise U.S. inflation by 0.41 to 0.82 percentage points, assuming a 50% to 100% pass-through to consumers[5] - The increase in average tariff rates to 10% could further raise U.S. inflation by 0.30 to 0.59 percentage points[5] Tariff Rates by Country - Tariffs on Chinese imports will rise to 67%, with additional tariffs on Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam (90%), Thailand (72%), and Indonesia (64%)[3][8] - Japan and the EU will face tariffs of 46% and 39%, respectively, under the new policy[3][8] Long-term Outlook - The high tariff rates are not expected to be permanent, as they may serve as leverage for negotiations with trade partners[6] - Risks include potential economic stagnation or recession in the U.S. due to the aggressive tariff policies[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Yangjie Technology, with a target price raised to RMB 55.7, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of RMB 46.3 [2][8]. Core Insights - Yangjie Technology is expected to continue its growth momentum into 2025, following a trend of improving revenue, gross margin, and net profit throughout 2024, outperforming the overall power industry [2][3]. - Despite a temporary adjustment in demand for new energy sources like photovoltaics, strong growth is anticipated in automotive electronics, consumer sectors, and overseas markets, supported by national policies and market recovery [2][3]. - The company plans to acquire Dongguan Better to enhance its product lineup in circuit protection components, which is expected to contribute to long-term growth in automotive electronics, AI servers, and international markets [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In Q4 2024, Yangjie Technology achieved revenue of RMB 1.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with a gross margin of 38.7%, marking a significant improvement [3][14]. - The company’s net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 330 million, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth and a 35% increase from the previous quarter [3][14]. - The financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue of RMB 7.01 billion, a 16% increase from 2024, with net profit expected to reach RMB 1.23 billion, representing a 23% growth [5][15]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a risk-free rate of 1.8% and a growth rate of 15% for 2030-2034, resulting in a target price of RMB 55.7 [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for Yangjie Technology is noted at 20.6x, which is considered attractive compared to historical averages [4][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.65, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of HKD 5.87 [3][6]. Core Insights - China Feihe's net profit for 2H24 fell short of market expectations due to short-term inventory clearance in functional nutrition products, including adult milk powder, which affected overall gross margin performance. However, the infant formula business showed revenue growth in line with expectations, and profit margins remained robust. Management is confident that revenue growth in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, with a slight increase in gross margin expected year-on-year [1][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the infant formula market, driving industry consolidation trends. The report suggests that Feihe will continue to capture market share through increased brand investment and product innovation [1][6]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2023 was reported at RMB 19,532 million, with a projected increase to RMB 20,749 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. The forecast for 2025 anticipates revenue of RMB 21,817 million, representing a growth of 5.1% [8][11]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3,390 million, with expectations of growth to RMB 3,570 million in 2024 and RMB 3,944 million in 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 10.5%, respectively [8][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 64.8% in 2023 to 66.3% in 2024, with further stability projected for 2025 [8][11]. Market Position and Strategy - China Feihe is focusing on high-end product offerings, with ultra-high-end products expected to see a revenue increase of 17% in 2024, contributing to 69% of total revenue. The company plans to launch even higher-end products in 2H25 [6][11]. - The management has announced a RMB 12 billion maternity subsidy plan, which is expected to have a limited negative impact on profit margins, as the actual costs will be lower than the total subsidy amount [6][11]. Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout, with a projected dividend of HKD 0.3264 per share for 2024, raising the payout ratio to 76.1%. Management aims for a 10% annual increase in absolute dividend amounts over the next two years [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [6] Core Views - BYD is expected to significantly increase its smart driving penetration rate, driving substantial growth in both sales and profits for new energy vehicles [2][6] - The target price for BYD shares is set at HKD 481.0, representing a potential upside of 18% for the Hong Kong stock and CNY 469.0 for the A-share, with a potential upside of 21% [4][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 602,315 million in 2023 to RMB 966,125 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% [3][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 30,041 million in 2023 to RMB 50,211 million in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 25% [3][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 20.2% in 2023 to 18.7% in 2025 [3][9] Sales and Market Performance - BYD's vehicle sales are anticipated to reach 5.5 million units in 2025, with overseas sales expected to nearly double [6] - The sales of high-end brands such as Tengshi, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang are projected to grow significantly [6] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 29.0x for new energy vehicles, 21.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to target prices of HKD 481.0 and CNY 469.0 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.5 HKD, indicating that the current market price does not reflect the company's true value [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to steadily reduce losses in 2024, with the neurointervention segment achieving its first annual profit. Revenue for 2024 is projected at 615 million RMB, a 40% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 70.5% [2][4]. - The cardiac valve segment is anticipated to generate 260 million RMB in revenue for 2024, also reflecting a 40% year-over-year growth, while the neurointervention segment is expected to reach 356 million RMB, marking a 39% increase [2][3]. - The report highlights that the market is closely monitoring the impact of centralized procurement, particularly in the neurointervention field, where risks are nearing resolution. In the cardiac valve sector, the slowdown in implant volume growth may not necessarily be negative due to potential price adjustments post-procurement [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 441 million RMB in 2023, 615 million RMB in 2024, 821 million RMB in 2025, 781 million RMB in 2026, and 1,024 million RMB in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 75.9%, 39.5%, 33.4%, -4.9%, and 31.2% respectively [5][12]. - The company is expected to narrow its net loss from 393 million RMB in 2023 to 228 million RMB in 2024, with further reductions anticipated in subsequent years [5][12]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue by segment, with cardiac valves and neurointervention contributing significantly to the overall growth [2][12]. Product Pipeline and Market Strategy - The company has separated three advanced products from its transcatheter valve business to prepare for independent financing and international expansion. These products are aimed at the European and American markets [4][14]. - The DCWire microguidewire is currently undergoing FDA registration and is expected to be the company's first original product to enter the international market [4][14]. - The report outlines the expected approval timelines for various products, including the TaurusNXT and TaurusTrio, which are anticipated to receive approval between late 2025 and mid-2026 [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 88.9, indicating a potential upside of 18% from the current price of HKD 75.25 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see strong growth in its business guidance for 2025, with significant profit increases anticipated. The mobile camera module and lens segments are projected to outperform industry growth rates, contributing to improved profitability [10]. - The automotive segment is also expected to maintain robust growth, with revenue increases providing stable profit growth. The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to grow by 22% year-on-year [10]. - The report highlights an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 based on the company's performance and outlook [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 31,681 million in 2023 to RMB 50,842 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.5% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [2]. - Net profit is anticipated to rise from RMB 1,099 million in 2023 to RMB 4,610 million in 2027, with a significant increase in growth rates, particularly a 146% increase in 2024 [2]. Segment Performance - The mobile camera module segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 21,038 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 600 million [14]. - The automotive lens segment is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 4,390 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 741 million [14]. - The overall revenue for the company in 2025 is estimated at RMB 41,677 million, with a net profit of RMB 3,306 million [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 50, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 40 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's 2024 performance slightly exceeded previous positive earnings forecasts, with revenue reaching RMB 4.052 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 90.8%, surpassing the earlier guidance of 85% [5][7]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 1.07 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 277.2%, also exceeding prior expectations of 170% growth [5][7]. - The company expects to maintain a revenue growth rate of over 35% for 2025, supported by a strong order backlog of USD 990 million, which is up 71.2% year-on-year [5][7]. - North America is identified as a key growth driver, with its revenue contribution increasing to 50% in 2024, up from 40% in 2023 [5][7]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for WuXi AppTec are as follows: - 2023: Revenue of RMB 2.124 billion, net profit of RMB 284 million - 2024: Revenue of RMB 4.052 billion, net profit of RMB 1.07 billion - 2025E: Revenue of RMB 5.569 billion, net profit of RMB 1.302 billion - 2026E: Revenue of RMB 7.618 billion, net profit of RMB 1.739 billion - 2027E: Revenue of RMB 9.987 billion, net profit of RMB 2.356 billion [7][8][9]. - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue exceeding 40% over the next three years under optimistic scenarios [19]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the 2025/2026 estimated net profit upwards by 28% and 24% respectively, primarily due to increased revenue forecasts [5][7]. - The target valuation multiple is set at 1.05x PEG, corresponding to a 31x PE for 2026E, leading to the target price of HKD 50 [5][7].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 腾讯（700.HK）：借 AI 东风，腾讯能否 重回 700？ 业绩超预期，宣布派发股息及回购：公司 4Q24 收入人民币 1,725 亿 元，同比增长 11%，高于市场预期 2.3%；毛利率 52.6%，同比提升 3 个 百分点，各分部毛利率同比均有改善；调整后净利润为 553 亿元，同 比增长 30%，高于市场预期；调整后净利率 32.1%，4Q23 为 27.5%， 3Q24 为 35.8%。公司宣布派发每股股息 4.5 港元，在 2025 年至少回购 800 亿港元股份，两者约合 2.4%的股东回报。 本土游戏表现亮眼，预计 1Q25 保持强劲势头：4Q24 本土游戏收入同 比增长 23%至 332 亿元，增长强劲，好于我们预期，主要得益于去年 低基数以及旗舰游戏的健康表现。根据 Sensor Tower 数据监测，《王者 荣耀》在今年一季度目前表现依然亮眼，1 月和 2 月成为该游戏自 2021 年以来收入最高的两个月。国际游戏收入同比增长 15%至 160 亿元， 主要受《PUBG MOBILE》《荒野乱斗》等游戏推动。低基数效应在上半 年仍将持续，且递延收 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 小米集团（1810.HK）：四季度业绩创 历史新高，看好公司长期价值成长 重申小米的"买入"评级，上调目标价至 75.0 港元，潜在升幅 29%。 首席科技分析师 tony_shen@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6435 黄佳琦 重申小米的"买入"评级：在 2024 年四季度，小米的收入、经调整 后净利润、经调整后核心业务净利润分别录得人民币 1,090 亿、83 亿、 90 亿元，均取得历史新高，增长强劲。这两年的经营表现充分体现 其公司战略方向和管理层执行力。小米人车家生态闭环，给予公司长 期增长空间。手机、新能源车、IoT 等业务板块均有望取得中国和全 球领先的位置。这将带来公司收入规模的增长和潜在利润的加速释放。 作为行业首推之一，当前小米市盈率为 42.1x，考虑其新能源车增长、 AI 战略定位和多业务板块龙头估值溢价，估值仍然具备上升空间。我 们对于小米长期的价值增长保持较为乐观的判断。 小米 2025 年展望：1）智能手机：我们预期今年出货量有望达 1.8 亿 部以上。受益于上游成本下行、高端化战略、中国国补等，手机毛利 率有改善空间。2）Io ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 安踏（2020.HK）：利润率短期扩张可能受 限，但多品牌战略将持续驱动规模扩张 展望 2025 年，尽管安踏的利润率可能继续面临较大的压力，但主力品 牌的收入规模有望稳步扩张，其他品牌的流水将维持高速增长，同时 Amer Sports 的收入贡献将大幅提升，助力公司 2025 年核心净利润维 持较高的增长。长期来看，多品牌战略有望持续驱动公司整体收入规 模的扩张。上调目标价至 118.8 港元，并维持"买入"评级。 林闻嘉 首席消费分析师 richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 2025 年 3 月 20 日 评级 | 目标价（港元） | 118.8 | | --- | --- | | 潜在升幅/降幅 | +21.3% | | 目前股价（港元） | 97.9 | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 65.6-107.5 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 274,826 | | 近 3月日均成交额（百万港元） | 983.1 | | 注 ...